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US tech stocks had a rough day yesterday, with AI-focused companies leading the selloff after China-based DeepSeek's low-cost, open-source language model shook up the AI industry, despite questions about its origins and durability. Nvidia plunged 16.9%, losing $589 billion in market cap, the largest one-day loss in history. We think it will recover soon.

In other company news, Constellation Energy tumbled 20.9% as AI-linked energy plays also took a hit. Elsewhere, Apple rose by 3.25% because investors felt that it wasn't an AI company at all. Lastly, AT&T surprised the market with strong Q4 results, driven by gains in mobile and fibre subscribers thanks to seasonal promos and bundling.

Yesterday, the JSE All-share was down 0.12%, the S&P 500 conked by 1.46%, and the Nasdaq ended an eye-watering 3.07% lower. Don't panic, and keep in mind that 300 of the S&P 500 stocks actually posted gains yesterday.

Stocks took a breather on Friday after posting their best start to a presidential term since Ronald Reagan in 1985. Only those over 60 will remember that. Despite a chipmaker selloff, the S&P 500 gained 1.77% last week, and the Nasdaq rose 1.52%.

In company news, Meta Platforms climbed 1.7% on plans to invest $65 billion into AI-projects in 2025. Meanwhile, Texas Instruments plunged 7.5%, its biggest drop in 5 years, after weak demand and rising costs dented its outlook. American Express profits were up 12% on the back of strong holiday spending, but the stock fell 1.4%.

On Friday, the JSE All-share was up 0.41%, but the S&P 500 fell 0.29%, and the Nasdaq dribbled 0.50% lower.

US markets reached a new record high yesterday after Trump addressed Davos and demanded lower interest rates and crude prices. Isn't the Fed supposed to be independent? It's also not clear why the Saudis would co-operate with his "vision", but cheaper oil eases inflation concerns, and that's good for stocks.

In company news, Netherlands-based chip equipment maker ASML dropped 4.4% on fears of tighter US export controls. Elsewhere, Union Pacific tooted 5.0% higher after the railroad company issued a positive forecast. Finally, ByteDance is working on a plan to keep TikTok running in the US without selling its operations.

Here's the lowdown, the JSE All-share was down 0.84%, the S&P 500 peaked, up 0.53%, and the Nasdaq was 0.22% higher.

The S&P 500 neared record highs last night after a 3-day rally. Enthusiasm in the tech sector continued, on news of ambitious AI infrastructure projects, so Nvidia rose 4.4% and Oracle was up 6.8%. It's a brave new world.

In company news, Johnson & Johnson fell 1.9% after a solid report but a weaker-than-expected 2025 outlook. Damn. Meanwhile, Travelers (+3.2%) and Procter & Gamble (+1.9%) gained on strong results. Lastly, Samsung announced a new ultra-thin phone.

At the end of the day, the JSE All-share was down 0.23%, but the S&P 500 tacked on 0.61%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.28% higher.

US stocks closed higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 climbing almost 1% as investors reacted positively to President Trump's initial policy actions. Over 400 stocks in the index advanced, fuelled by the announcement of an AI infrastructure investment initiative involving SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle.

In company news, Netflix jumped 14% in late trade after posting its largest-ever quarterly subscriber growth and raising prices; they now have over 300 million customers. Elsewhere, Adidas beat expectations, thanks to strong demand for retro sneakers like the Samba. Those are all the rage.

Izolo, the JSE All-share was up 0.13%, the S&P 500 rose 0.88%, and the Nasdaq was 0.64% higher. On we go.

US markets were closed last night, but European equities edged higher with the Stoxx 600 index closing up 0.05%. Investors kept a close watch on Washington and Donald Trump's second inauguration, anticipating a wave of executive orders spanning energy, cryptocurrencies, and TikTok.

The Euro and British pound surged against the US Dollar, enjoying their biggest one-day gains in over a year on reports that Trump would hold off imposing tariffs on US trading partners on his first day in office.

In company news, Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug Wegovy faces headwinds as the US government pushes for price cuts and a recent trial delivered disappointing results, challenging its early market dominance. The stock was down 4% yesterday in Denmark and has dropped over 10% in the last week.

At the Joburg close, the JSE All-share was up a tiny 0.04%. That's it.

On Friday, US markets rallied again, capping off their best week since the November presidential election. The Nasdaq gained 3.8% for the week, while the S&P 500 rose 3.7%. It's a public holiday in the US today, and it's also Donald Trump's inauguration.

In company news, the US government has given Moderna $590 million to accelerate their bird flu vaccine development, and its shares are up 4.5% pre-market. Elsewhere, The FTC has raised concerns that Microsoft's $13 billion investment in OpenAI could strengthen its dominance in cloud computing and give it a major edge in the emerging AI market. Lastly, Intel surged over 9% following reports that the chipmaker might be a potential acquisition target.

On Friday, the JSE All-share was up 1.25%, the S&P 500 rose 1.00%, and the Nasdaq was 1.51% higher. Nice one.

US markets took a breather yesterday after Wednesday's strong rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing in the red. A dip in tech megacaps weighed on the broader market. You can expect this kind of ebb and flow, it's quite normal. Over time, the market moves higher.

In corporate news, Microsoft is upping the price of its Office apps for consumers, banking on demand for its new AI features. Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley climbed 4% after reporting fourth-quarter profits that more than doubled, thanks to stronger-than-expected trading revenues. Finally, Rio Tinto and Glencore are said to be exploring a merger, which could mark the mining sector's biggest deal yet.

At the close, the JSE All-share was up 0.17%, but the S&P 500 fell 0.21%, and the Nasdaq sagged by 0.89%.

US markets rallied yesterday after softer inflation numbers boosted hopes for a Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 surged 1.8%, its best day since the November election and erasing its 2025 losses. Big names led the charge: Tesla jumped 8.0%, Nvidia gained 3.4%, Meta added 3.8%, and Amazon rose 2.6%.

In corporate news, Goldman Sachs popped 6% after smashing estimates, thanks to its equity traders delivering their best year yet. Meanwhile, NetApp is offloading a portfolio of cloud software assets, originally picked up during its acquisition spree to Flexera, backed by private equity giant Thoma Bravo.

In summary, the JSE All-share was up 1.69%, the S&P 500 leaped 1.83%, and the Nasdaq screamed 2.45% higher.

Yesterday was a rather uneventful day for markets, as all three indices we track moved less than 0.5%. In the US, PPI came in at 0.2% month on month, which means production prices increased at half the speed Wall Street was expecting. Generally, low production costs leads to lower consumer prices in the coming months, so that's positive.

In company news, Eli Lilly fell 6.6% after they released Q4 guidance below market expectations. Analysts were expecting revenue of $13.95 billion, but the company thinks it will only achieve $13.5 billion, which is still 45% higher than last year. If a company has high expectations, even a small miss can spook traders. It is worth noting that the long term growth forecasts are still on track. In the short term, supply chain and production delays have lead and lag impacts that are quite unpredictable.

In summary, the JSE All-share closed up 0.10%, the S&P 500 rose 0.11%, and the Nasdaq ended 0.23% lower.

Yesterday the S&P 500 opened 0.9% lower but squeaked into the green at the close. Local stocks had a tough day as the exchange rate weakened to $/R19.21, and most sectors were down over 1%.

In company news, Howard Hughes Holdings soared 9.21% after billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman offered to acquire the portion of the real estate developer that he doesn't already own. His plan is to turn the property company into a modern Berkshire Hathaway by investing surplus cash in other companies.

Conversely, vaccine maker Moderna plunged 16.8% as it lowered its revenue guidance by $1 billion. The stock recently rallied after the US reported the outbreak of bird flu, but that was short-lived. Abercrombie & Fitch also had a bad day, dropping by 15.7% after it raised is guidance. Unfortunately, Wall Street had expected a higher increase. Expectations drive share prices in the short term.

In summary, the JSE All-share closed down 1.70%, but the S&P 500 rose by 0.16%, and the Nasdaq slid 0.38%.

2024 was another stellar year. The Vestact model portfolio rose by 40.9%, crushing the S&P 500 by a wide margin. This is a real portfolio which pays advice fees and occasional brokerage charges and earns dividends. It belongs to an East Rand-based businessman who sent us $800 000 in 2014. The account is now worth over $5 million.

Vestact's 10-year investment performance has a nice margin of safety over the broad index. We are up 18.6% per year after all fees, on average, compared to the S&P 500 which is only up 11.1% on average. It's a been a good run.

In 2024, some of our stocks (like Nvidia) did well, and others did not do so well (like Nike). The portfolio is invested in major US stocks in the tech and healthcare sectors. Over time, we expect our preferred stocks to do better than the S&P 500, with very little turnover.

We don't know what will happen in 2025, but we are still optimistic. We believe that the Fed still has space to trim US interest rates, because shelter (housing) prices will moderate further, lowering inflation. The Trump administration says it will cut taxes, remove regulation and promote mergers and acquisitions. We are excited about the advances in AI and weight-loss drugs. The second half of the 2020s will be good, so we should all be fully invested.

2024 was a big year for electoral upheaval, so there are now lots of new politicians on the job. We make a point of staying in the market when public policy seems volatile.

The main driver of share price performance is earnings, and the good news is that earnings season starts this week! Wall Street currently expects the S&P 500 to report Q4 earnings growth of 8.81%.

We will keep writing our daily newsletter, starting again tomorrow. Our goal is to keep you amused and well-informed, and to share important company updates and market developments with you.

Our business strategy remains the same: we have just one office in Rosebank, offer top-notch service, own large-cap US growth stocks in our preferred sectors for the long-run and charge low fees (1% per annum).

All the best for 2025.

Regards,
Paul

US markets took a breather yesterday, after some iffy producer price data. It's been a stellar year so far, with the S&P 500 up 27.6% year-to-date, and the Nasdaq Composite up 34.8%. We have no complaints!

Giants like Nvidia (+185%), Meta (+82%), Tesla (+68%), and Apple (+34%) have led the charge this year. Staying fully invested through the cycles has paid off, and we're grateful for your trust in our long-term approach.

In corporate news, chipmaker Broadcom surged another 5% after hours on strong fourth-quarter profits. Meanwhile, Adobe tumbled 13.7% after issuing a cautious annual sales forecast, fuelling concerns over competition from AI-based startups. ServiceTitan made a splashy debut, opening 42% above its IPO price after raising $625 million.

In summary, the JSE All-share was down 0.17%, the S&P 500 fell 0.54%, and the Nasdaq was 0.66% lower. Ah well.

US markets rebounded strongly yesterday after benign inflation numbers bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. The Nasdaq 100 surged to a record high, led by the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants. Tesla (+5.9%), Amazon (+2.3%), and Meta Platforms (+2.2%) all hit individual all-time highs, while Alphabet (+5.5%) and Nvidia (+3.1%) also posted solid gains.

In corporate news, Broadcom jumped 6.6% on reports of a collaboration with Apple on AI-focused server chips. Meanwhile, GameStop soared 7.6% after delivering a surprise Q3 profit, attributed to successful cost-cutting efforts. Finally, contact lens manufacturer Bausch + Lomb was the biggest loser of the day (-12.1%) on news that Blackstone may back out of an attempted acquisition of the company.

In summary, the JSE All-share was down 0.18%, the S&P 500 rose 0.82%, and the Nasdaq was 1.77% higher. Cowabunga!

US markets slipped yesterday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq retreating from recent peaks. Bond yields edged higher ahead of the year's final CPI report, which is anticipated to show a rise in the annualised headline figure.

In company news, Alphabet jumped 5.6% after unveiling a breakthrough in quantum computing with its Willow chip. Meanwhile, Oracle slid 6.7% on lackluster results. Lastly, Eli Lilly approved a $15 billion buyback program and hiked its dividend by 15%, boosted by Zepbound's blockbuster success.

Here's the lowdown, the JSE All-share was down 0.42%, the S&P 500 fell 0.30%, and the Nasdaq was 0.25% lower.