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Broken telephone

07 March , 09:30 am

Market scorecard

US markets closed sharply lower yesterday after another wave of confusing tariff headlines. Sentiment is so shaky that even Trump's decision to delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada failed to spark a rebound. This is one of those days when we need to remind you that you own actual companies, not just a collection of share prices. Take heart.

In company news, Broadcom shares are up 12.8% after-hours as the chip company boosted investor confidence with an optimistic revenue forecast, signalling that AI-related spending remains strong. Elsewhere, OpenAI and Oracle are gearing up to bring their $100 billion Stargate project online, starting with a massive AI data center in Texas. The facility will be powered by tens of thousands of Nvidia chips, with deployment set to begin in the coming months. Lastly, Kroger raised its sales outlook, trying to reassure investors amid uncertainty following its CEO's sudden departure.

Izolo, the JSE All-share was up 0.62%, but the S&P 500 slid 1.78%, and the Nasdaq sank by 2.61%. No man.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

People around me seem a little disoriented and despondent this week because they've been reading the news too closely. There's a lot going on in the world right now, and some of it seems "not good".

In 1973, a person sent a letter to EB White (pictured here), the Maine-based author of children's books including Charlotte's Web and Stuart Little. The letter expressed a bleak outlook for humanity. White's reply is shown below.

"As long as there is one upright man, as long as there is one compassionate woman, the contagion may spread and the scene is not desolate. Hope is the thing that is left to us, in a bad time. I shall get up Sunday morning and wind the clock, as a contribution to order and steadfastness."

"Sailors have an expression about the weather: they say, the weather is a great bluffer. I guess the same is true of our human society - things can look dark, then a break shows in the clouds, and all is changed, sometimes rather suddenly. It is quite obvious that the human race has made a queer mess of life on this planet. But as a people, we probably harbor seeds of goodness that have lain for a long time waiting to sprout when the conditions are right. Man's curiosity, his relentlessness, his inventiveness, his ingenuity have led him into deep trouble. We can only hope that these same traits will enable him to claw his way out."

"Hang on to your hat. Hang on to your hope. And wind the clock, for tomorrow is another day."

Byron's beats

We have a number of newsletter readers who copy our ideas but invest on cheaper platforms to avoid our advice fees. We know this because they have told us. There must be many others.

We are very happy to make our newsletter free and widely available. Financial education is a massive leveller, and hopefully, we can do our bit to spread some good ideas around.

Having said that, if you are not a client but like to use our ideas, you are missing out on a few key ingredients. If we decide to sell a recommended stock we contact clients directly, we do not put it in our newsletter. We look carefully at each investor's portfolio and advise them where to allocate the proceeds of the sale based on what they already own and where we see good value. The same process applies when clients send fresh funds.

We are just a quick phone call, WhatsApp message or direct email away from any client who feels nervous about market conditions. If that personal touch keeps you invested and you reap the gains later on, then we have done our job. If you're a copycat, you are on your own to deal with the market gyrations and the emotions that come with it. Good luck with that.

Michael's musings

Buying a car in South Africa today is more expensive when adjusted for inflation than a few years ago. On average, car prices have increased by more than salaries have gone up. I suspect that is due to a combination of the weakening Rand and cars having many more expensive hi-tech features than yesteryear.

As a result, luxury car brand sales have been smashed. That end of the market has literally imploded. Compared to ten years ago, Mercedes-Benz sells 82% fewer cars, 5 048 units in 2024 from 28 993 in 2014. Other luxury brands have only done slightly better, Audi (-70%) and BMW/ Mini (-50%).

Suzuki has been a major benefactor, with sales going from 6 402 in 2014 to 56 109 in 2024. The Chinese brands have only really been on the scene for a few years, so a 10-year comparison isn't fair for them. If we rerun these numbers in 2030, I think that the Chinese brands will show similar growth patterns.

This BusinessTech article goes into more detail - South Africans dumping BMW and Mercedes-Benz. The article notes that BMW's 1 Series now costs R713 395, a 29% increase from R553 220 in 2021. The Mercedes-Benz A-Class has seen the most significant price increase. It now costs R826 024, 41% more than the R585 960 price tag it had three years ago.

Bright's banter

Swiss shoe company ON Holding continues to deliver strong growth, with net income jumping to CHF 242.3 million in 2024, a 57.7% year-on-year increase on full-year revenues of CHF 2.3 billion. Both these numbers came in well ahead of all expectations.

Despite solid fundamentals, ON shares fell 1.85% amid broader market turmoil driven by US tariffs and a selloff in tech and finance. Over three years, ON has returned 130.82%, far outpacing the luxury sector and the other apparel retailers.

The Roger Federer-backed company projects 20.2% annual revenue growth. Last year, the duo launched the Cloudeasy Cyclon shoe (pictured below), made with Loop Industries' 100% recycled polyester fiber.

I like companies that stay ahead by being innovative, but making a solid investment case for this sector right now is tough.

Signing off

Asian markets tracked Wall Street lower this morning, with Australia, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea seeing sharp declines. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi blasted Donald Trump as "two-faced" and called US tariffs "evil."

In local company news, FirstRand posted a 10% increase in headline earnings to R20.96 billion for the six months ended December, driven by a stronger credit performance and a more cautious lending approach.

US equity futures are flat pre-market, so with luck we'll have a better close to the week. There will be US jobs data out before the open on Wall Street. The Rand is trading at around R18.15 to the US Dollar.

Enjoy the next two days off. Go for a walk, don't read the news, and stay off your phone.