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11 March , 08:34 am

Market scorecard

US markets took a beating last night, with recession jitters and tariff worries keeping volatility high. The Nasdaq sank 4%, its worst drop since 2022, while Tesla cratered 15% - its biggest slump since 2020. Team Trump must be wondering what to do next, since much of this pain is self-inflicted.

In company news, Oracle is down 3.3% after-hours as it reported revenue that only rose 6.4% to $14.13 billion. CEO Safra Catz remained upbeat on outlook as cloud capacity expands. The biggest gainer in the S&P 500 was biotech company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, up 5.3% for no apparent reason.

At the close, the JSE All-share was down 1.44%, the S&P 500 fell 2.70%, and the Nasdaq was 4.00% lower. Investing can be painful sometimes, but we are staying put.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

Americans like to moan about their healthcare system. The most common complaints are that drugs are too expensive, health insurers are bureaucratic, state-provided coverage only starts at 65 years old, and that visits to hospitals can be ruinously expensive.

The United States spends a lot more on healthcare per person than any other G7 nation, by a country mile. See the chart below from Our World in Data. Yes, that's $12 000 per person per year.

Those of us living outside the US really ought to be thankful for the mighty American consumer, that pays (through their medical insurers both public and private) for such a high standard of care.

All that money sloshing around supports their amazing doctors, brilliant medical institutions, world-class researchers and innovative drug and medical device companies. The citizens of the rest of the world benefit greatly.

Michael's musings

Last year, Texas took the crown as the US state producing the most solar power, dethroning California. That's quite telling because California is viewed as a global leader in transitioning to renewable energy, whereas Texas is generally known for loving oil and fossil fuels.

Over the last five years, Texas has installed around 19 GW of solar, 14 GW of wind and 6.2 GW of battery capacity. It has resulted in renewable energy going from 18% of the grid feed to 30%.

The surge in wind and solar installations is because the cost per KW makes economic sense. The quickest and cheapest way to get more power into your grid is from massive solar farms - Texas has both the space and the sun. One reason why California is falling behind Texas is that the former has burdensome regulations, which makes it very slow and difficult to build new projects.

There are two lessons to take from the above. First, if you want humanity to change its ways, change the economics. Secondly, more regulation leads to less innovation and less development.

Bright's banter

Amazon has officially outpaced Walmart in quarterly revenue, reporting a record $187.8 billion last quarter, compared to Walmart's $180.6 billion. While the two retail giants have been competing for years, their business models are very different.

Walmart's revenue is primarily from its massive stores and from Sam's Club memberships, with a growing but still small advertising arm ($4.4 billion in 2023). Meanwhile, Amazon generates income from online and physical retail, subscriptions, cloud computing (AWS), and advertising.

Margins are where Amazon really pulls ahead. Despite similar retail profits, Amazon's high-margin businesses, AWS and advertising, drove $59 billion in profit last year, giving it a 9% net margin. Walmart, by contrast, earned $19.4 billion with a slim 2.9% margin.

The difference is reflected in market value, once smaller than Walmart, Amazon is now worth three times as much. We've been happy holders of Amazon throughout this journey.

Signing off

Asian markets extended their losses, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index hitting a five-week low. Hong Kong and China pared some of their declines in late trade, but overall sentiment remains weak.

In local company news, Sun International closed up 6% after the company said it expects 14%-20% rise in full-year earnings, driven by strong online gaming revenue growth from Sunbet. Elsewhere, AVI reported a 10.2% increase in profits for the first half of the financial year thanks to strong cash generation and tight cost control.

US equity futures are still looking wobbly in pre-market trade. The Rand is at around R18.33 to the US Dollar.

Keep in mind that in the short term, markets are driven by fear and greed. Share prices will stop going down when the greed kicks in.

Stay strong.