
The price of gold has done rather well recently. People have been buying bullion because of all the volatility in stock markets, a weakening Dollar and talk of rising inflation. It's at $3 400 an ounce, up 30% this year! When gold goes up a lot, we have clients asking about owning some.
We are not gold bugs. Unlike equities, gold doesn't grow, it doesn't pay a dividend and it doesn't generate profit that can be reinvested into expanding operations. We agree with Warren Buffett - gold costs money to get out the ground and then it costs more money to store it.
Generally, when people promote gold as the 'safe-haven' asset, they cherry-pick date ranges to make it seem like a good investment. Gold has had two periods of good growth. The first was from 1970 to 1980, when the Dollar decoupled from gold and prices went from $300 to $2 700 per ounce. Amazing!
The next two decades were horrific, with the gold price plunging from $2 700 back down to $470. It was not a 'safe haven' then? Over those 30 years, the price went from $300 to $470, with a big spike in the middle. Since then, it's has had an okay time - $470 to the current $3 400 for an average annual return of 8.6%. Satisfactory, but not amazing, with some big swings along the way.
What about the last ten years? Since 2015, gold has returned 8% per year, on average. The S&P 500 averaged 13% over the same period. I know which asset class I would rather be in for the long term.