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Tarifflation

01 April , 08:20 am

Market scorecard

US markets recovered from a nasty start yesterday, rising steadily during afternoon trading in New York. The first three months of 2025 have been very disappointing, the worst quarter for US stocks since 2022. Tech stocks got whacked over this period, but defensive sectors like healthcare held up better.

In company news, European defence stocks have had a strong year so far, with Germany's Rheinmetall surging 118% year-to-date and France's Thales up 77%. Elsewhere, Toyota fell 1.36% after President Trump told reporters he "couldn't care less" if foreign automakers are forced to raise prices due to tariffs. Finally, down jacket-maker Canada Goose shares sank 3.4% on views that it would be hit by tariffs.

Izolo, the JSE All-share was down 1.04%, but the S&P 500 rose 0.55%, and the Nasdaq was only 0.14% lower. Not too bad.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

I love the internet. Imagine living 100 years ago, when knowledge could only be obtained by personal experience, or by going to a library and flipping through an encyclopedia. In fact, that was how it worked in the 1980s, when I was a schoolboy. That was only 40 years ago.

Now we have the new AI-enhanced Google search, plus Wikipedia. We have RSS readers, newsletter subscriptions and updates on our phones. Excellent!

I also really appreciate long-form journalism. By that I mean articles of around 1 000 words or so. Longer than that and it's TLDR, sorry.

Here are three fabulous examples, with links. The first one is a comprehensive piece about the history of the pineapple. Have you tried a Rubyglow or Pinkglow?

Then there is this masterpiece, an easy(ish) explanation of the flow of fluid in the brain. It explains the blood-brain barrier, which hugely complicates drug development for mental conditions.

Finally, here's a theory about human evolution only occurring because of the invention of the handbag. Female workers needed to have somewhere to put their babies while weeding the fields.

Byron's beats

There has long been a concern that the number of middle-income earners is shrinking in the US. As it turns out, that is indeed the case, but not because people are becoming poorer, rather because they are getting richer.

Take a look at this image from the Census Bureau from 1967 to 2022. The middle-income band has shrunk from 54.6% in 1967 to 39.1% in 2022. Over that same period, high income has gone from 13.1% to 37.5%, absorbing a large chunk of middle-income earners. Even low income has shrunk from 32.3% to 23.3%.

This is, of course, a good thing and a sign of prosperity and progress amongst the income groups. High-income earners spend more money and pay higher taxes too.

Michael's musings

Stagflation is a term that no economist wants to hear. It's a nightmare potential scenario which unfortunately has been cropping up more often in the news. Let's look at what it means.

During a 'normal' economic recession, inflation cools due to lower levels of economic activity, which allows the central bank to cut interest rates. Lower interest rates stimulate the economy, softening the blow of the recession and hastening the speed of recovery.

In a period of stagflation, a recession happens at the same time that inflation spikes. In this case, the central bank can't cut interest rates because that will cause more inflation, which makes the recession worse. They also can't raise interest rates to combat inflation because that would restrain the recovery.

Imagine being an investor or consumer in an economy facing a recession and spiking interest rates. That double whammy means your confidence is way down, resulting in less investment and consumption. That becomes a self-reinforcing, negative cycle.

Steep import tariffs are bad for inflation and consumer confidence. Added to that, lower investor confidence and mass government layoffs will hurt US economic growth. We are a long way from stagflation but it isn't great when people are already worrying about it.

Bright's banter

Retail investors aren't shying away from the market dip - in fact, they're leaning in. Despite concerns over "Liberation Day" tariffs, inflated earnings forecasts, and slowing economic data, they're aggressively buying the pullback.

According to Vanda Research, these regular investors have poured $32.9 billion into US stocks since the S&P 500's late-February lows, ranking among the highest inflows in a decade. Their top picks? Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, Amazon, and AMD.

The graph below shows the company and the amount that has flowed to it.

Signing off

Asian markets rebounded after several days of losses, with increased volatility ahead of President Trump's ill-advised tariff announcements. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose, led by gains in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea.

In local company news, AECI reported a 2.7% drop in revenue to R36.5 billion. To streamline its focus on mining and chemicals, the group sold its Asphalt unit for R1.1 billion and is now looking to offload its public water division, Animal Health, Schrim, Sans Fibers, and Beverage businesses.

US equity futures have slipped slightly lower in pre-market trade. The Rand is at around R18.38 to the US Dollar.

We shall soldier on.