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I'll take the ring

03 April , 08:27 am

Market scorecard

US markets ended higher yesterday ahead of Trump's post-market Rose Garden announcement. Sadly they plummeted after the full horror of his tariff plans became apparent. His team came up with an absurd formula to set sky-high tariffs on most trade partners. US equity futures are now deep in the red, and we expect today to be very difficult.

In company news, Tesla shares initially fell after reporting a 13% drop in first quarter global deliveries year-over-year but rebounded to close up 5.3%. The turnaround came after a Politico report suggested that Trump had told his inner circle that Elon Musk would be stepping back from his role with the administration in the coming weeks. Musk said this was "fake news."

The report for Wednesday was this, the JSE All-share was down 0.94%, the S&P 500 rose 0.67%, and the Nasdaq was 0.87% higher. Today? we can't yet say.

Our 10c worth

Michael's musings

What makes a society as a whole more wealthy? Is it limiting imports and trying to drive exports - an economic system called Mercantilism which was popular in the 15 and 1600s? That flawed economic system assumed that imports were bad because you were sending money to another country, and that must be a problem. Its proponents said it was much better to buy locally produced products, even if they were significantly more expensive or of inferior quality.

Thankfully, humanity evolved past that view about 250 years ago. Adam Smith, the father of modern economics, showed in his groundbreaking work The Wealth of Nations that focusing on efficiency and free trade is what matters. You grow your economy by doing what you are good at, and trading with other countries for the rest. If humanity still held the view of, 'imports are bad', technology advancements would have dramatically slowed and most countries would still have agrarian economies.

Last night, the US effectively withdrew from global trade, focusing inward instead. The country is big, but no nation is big enough to be self-sufficient. This will backfire.

Team Trump should really just focus on making their economy more efficient - they seem to be making good strides with DOGE. A country that is the most efficient, best trained and has significant money behind it, automatically has an advantage when trading.

South African politicians should also focus on making our country more efficient, instead of trying to find new ways to tax citizens to fund wasteful government spending.

One thing, from Paul

We are all very absorbed by the current news. Everyone is on the edge of their seats, waiting to see what Trump does next. Also, what Ramaphosa decides to do as the GNU falters.

It's a good idea to lift one's head a bit and look further out. So, how is the rest of your April shaping up?

I'm looking forward to Easter, and some quality family time at our little bush lodge in the Waterberg, not far from Bela-Bela.

Next week, first quarter earnings season kicks off. Remember, stocks follow earnings, more than politics. I'll also be watching out for the next monthly US inflation number.

In sports, I'm moderately interested in the Masters at Augusta. Ditto, the London Marathon. I'm very interested in the quarter finals of the UEFA Champions League (I'm a die-hard Barcelona fan).

As for politics, apart from the US and South Africa, I'm curious about the new German government and the outcomes of the elections in Canada and Australia.

Byron's beats

One of my favourite books of all time is The Lord of The Rings trilogy. I have read it three times and watched the movies even more times than that. One of the main reasons I love the book is because of all the life lessons that come with it, despite it being a fantasy story.

I wouldn't say we are in the depths of Mordor right now, but times are certainly interesting. Here are a few lessons from the book that might be helpful at the moment.

The past shapes the present. We might think that we are living through unprecedented times, which we are, but the world has always been a crazy place. Understanding history helps us navigate the present.

Relationships and loyalty are indispensable. Through very dark times, the unshakable loyalty from some of the characters is what gets them through. Keep your family, friends and colleagues close. Loyalty will always take you further than you think.

Power corrupts. The ring symbolises that power. Even if you are inherently good, the ring will bring out your weakest traits and exploit them. Politicians, take note.

Unity over division. It took all the diverse races of Middle Earth to pull together to defeat evil. There is a lot of strength in diversity. Just ask the Springboks.

As an aside, reading non-fiction is great, you get to learn a lot of life lessons from real people. But keep on reading those fantasy books, it is your imagination that can really achieve greatness in life.

Bright's banter

Amazon's dominance in the American retail landscape is unmatched. A YouGov survey shows that 96% of US adults recognise the brand - putting it on par with McDonald's, Pepsi, and Google. Meanwhile, 80% say they'd consider buying from Amazon when shopping.

Amazon also leads the "online" category, with 62% of Americans naming it their top choice. Even Amazon Prime ranks high, showing its ecosystem is deeply embedded in consumer habits.

The financials seem to agree. Amazon posted record revenue last quarter and officially surpassed Walmart as America's top retailer.

Given its unrivalled consumer reach, strong brand loyalty, and ability to outmaneuver dinosaur retail competitors, Amazon remains our top pick in the e-commerce space. In addition to that world class business, investors in Amazon also get the market leading Amazon Web Services operation.

Signing off

Chinese stocks recovered some ground after an initial drop, as investors speculated that authorities would step in with further measures to support the economy. This comes in response to the US imposing its most significant tariff hike yet (a further 34%, bringing the base tariff to 54%) on nearly all Chinese exports.

In local company news, tech contractor iOCO (formerly EOH) reported its half-year results, showing a 6.4% revenue decline to R2.7 billion. However, profits surged 159%, marking the company's first profitable period in three years.

The Rand is trading at around R18.84 to the greenback after the approval of South Africa's most contentious budget, risking a fallout in the GNU.

We will keep our heads down and hope for the best. We will not be selling stocks today at giveaway prices, we will be holding fast.