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Plant-based revenue

03 June , 08:36 am

Market scorecard

US markets ended in the green yesterday, brushing off fresh trade jitters between Washington and Beijing. The S&P 500 tiptoed higher as June kicked off, typically a slower month for gains. Chipmakers had a good day, with Nvidia leading a 1.5% plus rally in the sector. Netflix and CrowdStrike traded at new all-time highs.

In company news, Disney is swinging the axe again, cutting several hundred jobs across its film and TV divisions. Elsewhere, Moderna shares rose after it secured US approval for a new Covid vaccine, though access is being narrowed thanks to RFK Jr. Finally, Meta rose 3.6% on a report in the Wall Street Journal that the company is going all-in on AI created advertisements.

At the close, the JSE All-share was 0.88% higher, the S&P 500 rose 0.41%, and the Nasdaq advanced by another 0.67%. Kudos to the bulls.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

My ideal day is one where I can read about the markets with only a few minor interruptions. Most global business news stories are informative, in a general way, but every now and then there are nuggets of insight which are most useful for our investment practice.

Here's an example. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal profiled Home Depot's gardening division. It's a huge business that sells plants, flowers, pots, soil and other outdoor equipment.

It rakes in about $20 billion a year in sales for the big-box retailer, which is more than they make from appliances, lumber or paint. They regularly introduce fabulous new plants like the ones pictured here, with a "live goods" buyer.

This particular insight from the article is what I really found intriguing: the revenue of this business is more than Hermès brings in from all of its luxury goods products.

Byron's beats

I saw a very interesting post on X from a guy named Noah Kagan who bought a property in 2017 to make money through Airbnb. His down payment was $63k for a $315k property and he ended up selling it for $378k in May of this year.

He compares his returns over the 8-year journey to just putting the money into the S&P 500. The results are quite astounding.

His return on investment for the property was 18% over the full 8 years. The S&P gained by 171% over the same period, with far less effort and ongoing admin.

I know this is cherry picking and some properties have done better than others, but the real lesson here was the hidden costs of owning a property that no one really tells you about.

If you are thinking of buying a property as an investment, do your research first. I am not against buying second properties, but more as a lifestyle decision and only if you can afford it.

Michael's musings

Last week, the SARB cut South African interest rates by 25 basis points, which was great news for anyone with debt. This should also boost economic growth because consumers and businesses now have slightly more room to increase spending and investment. More significantly, there is now official talk about adjusting our inflation target down to 3%.

Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has mentioned the 3% target before, but this is the first time the bank has discussed a lower target scenario during an interest rate review meeting. Kganyago added that "reviewing the inflation target was at an advanced stage". Now is the perfect time to rebase our inflation target as the SARB expects inflation to be at 3.2% for the rest of the year - we are basically already there.

Fifteen years ago, having a job that paid over R1 million per annum was rare and something people strived for. Now, earning R1 million a year doesn't even put you in the top tax bracket. Previously, inflation used to be at or above 6% a year, meaning that our buying power halved every ten years. A new 3% inflation target will significantly change that.

Bright's banter

The ultra-cushioned running shoe brand Hoka has been one of the standout growth stories in footwear, riding the pandemic-era running boom and gaining serious traction alongside fellow disruptor ON. But the pace is decelerating as Hoka's annual sales growth has dropped from 58% to 28% to 23% over the past three fiscal years.

Now, its parent company, Deckers, scrapped its forward guidance entirely, citing "macroeconomic uncertainty" and global trade policy drama. That cautious tone spooked investors, with the stock dropping as much as 22% after the announcement and now down over 40% for the year.

The slowdown is a plot twist for a brand that was nearly neck-and-neck with Ugg, Deckers' long-time cash cow. Hoka pulled in $2.23 billion in the last fiscal year, not far off from Ugg's decade-long $20 billion haul. Still, traders are wondering if the momentum was a lockdown fad or if Hoka can keep pace in a more competitive consumer environment.

For now, it seems runners might still be in love, but the market is not feeling the endorphin rush. Hoka was sprinting, now it's slowing to a jog.

Signing off

Asian markets ticked higher this morning, despite a weak Caixin purchasing manager's index report in China. Shares rose in Hong Kong on bets that Beijing will roll out more stimulus.

In local company news, Sirius Real Estate reported full-year result, and it grew profit after tax to EUR178.2 million, up from EUR107.9 million a year ago. They are locally listed but mostly own business parks, offices and mixed-use workspaces in Germany and the UK. The dividend was lifted again, marking 23 consecutive increases in payouts.

The Rand is holding steady at around R17.89 to the US Dollar.

US equity futures are a little lower in pre-market trade. CrowdStrike reports their latest numbers after the market closes tonight.

Enjoy your day.