First perfecters

06 August , 09:28 am

Market scorecard

US markets went down slightly last night, for reasons that are hard to discern. Weakening services activity and persistent price pressures might be feeding into concerns about the Fed's next step. Company results out yesterday were uninspiring, and bank stocks tumbled on chatter that team Trump is working on an executive order to punish banks that discriminate against conservative customers. Huh?

In company news, Advanced Micro Devices fell 6.5% despite a bullish sales forecast, other than in China. Elsewhere, Super Micro Computer slumped 16.3% after disappointing results. Lastly, Amgen shares were unchanged after raising its 2025 outlook, thanks to strong sales from drugs like Repatha.

At the close, the JSE All-share closed up 0.36%, but the S&P 500 fell 0.49%, and the Nasdaq was 0.65% lower. Ah well.

Our 10c worth

Byron's beats

Last week, Apple reported one of its strongest quarters in three years thanks to a solid beat in iPhone sales. Revenues were up by 10%, crushing the street's expectations of 4% growth. Tim Cook said overall revenue in the current quarter will rise by about 8%, which is pretty good. iPhone sales brought in 13% more in Q2, and services was also up by 13%.

Tariffs were a big theme in the commentary. Apple believes that at least 1% of sales growth came from consumers buying now, before expected price increases. As we learned yesterday, India, where most iPhones sold in the US are now made, is in trouble with the Trump administration for buying Russian oil. Regardless of how that all pans out, it won't change our minds about holding Apple for a long time to come.

Apple's AI strategy has been to take a slow and measured approach. They have spent way less than their tech peers on this technology. They are planning to step up the capex a little, which will result in over 20 new Apple Intelligence features, but they remain well behind the pack.

Apple don't like to be first movers, they prefer to be first perfecters. If their hardware is the best at running the software created by others, then they still stand to benefit in a big way. Apple has such a large, loyal, and big-spending user base that AI service providers have to make their product compatible with Apple hardware and software.

We are happy holders of this sleeping giant and continue to expect the stock to deliver solid returns in the years ahead.

One thing, from Paul

You may be aware that we've been adding Booking Holdings shares to client portfolios, if they send fresh cash. This is because we think that leisure tourism is going to boom over the next few decades. Humans are traveling as if they don't remember Covid. The sky is literally the limit!

Service providers in the tourism industry are well aware of the potential to make more money. More new hotels are being developed than ever before, especially at the top end of the market. Existing facilities are being upgraded. Cruise boat-building yards are booked up.

Global hotel groups like Marriott International, Hilton Worldwide, and Four Seasons are increasing their footprints, and deep-pocketed individuals are also developing ultra-luxury destinations. This is not just happening in Europe, and North America, it's also accelerating in Africa, Asia and South America.

Tour operators are adding activity-based offerings such as runs, hikes, cycle tours, water sports, wine making, and much more.

Governments are also waking up to the potential, developing more airports, adding runways at existing airports and connecting them to public transport systems. Heritage sites are being redeveloped with both public and private funding. There is still only one Mona Lisa at the Louvre, but Paris will have more things for tourists to do soon.

Another trend is the widening of the tourism season, from what was historically the key summer months. In the northern hemisphere, the months from June to August are very hot, and very crowded. The so-called "shoulder months" are becoming popular too, which is helpful for both customers and providers.

This trend has great potential. It's time to hop aboard.

Michael's musings

Vestact is a small and nimble company. We only have four professional staff and two support staff, so we can avoid bureaucracy and provide our customers with excellent client service. By comparison, large corporations can be terribly inefficient.

I was reminded of this recently when being admitted to hospital for a minor procedure. I had completed all the admission forms online, and thought the arrival process would be quick and simple. But when I got to the hospital, a nurse printed out my online answers and manually transcribed them onto a paper-based admissions file! Just wow, what a waste of valuable resources.

In May, IBM announced that it had retrenched 700 human resources staff after implementing AI-based upgrades. According to the company, "IBM's AskHR agent had automated 94% of simple, routine human resources tasks, like vacation requests and pay statements." I'm surprised some of that stuff hadn't been automated already.

IBM goes on to say that they estimate that up to 30% of their workforce could be replaced by AI in the coming years. Fewer employees is good for company profit margins, but it probably also improves company services and work quality.

I don't think the average investor fully appreciates how big the AI shift is going to be for the corporate world, company profits and by extension their share prices.

Bright's banter

I've just returned from a short but exhilarating holiday watching the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Spa (Belgium) and Budapest (Hungary). In between pit lane drama and paprikash stews, I was reminded that in life, and markets, it pays to be strategic with your positioning.

Spa-Francorchamps is a magnificent beast of a track, but getting there from Brussels is a bit like chasing alpha in a sideways market; you take the train to Verviers, hop on an F1 shuttle, then walk (a lot) to reach your spot. The track itself is so vast, you'll clock in steps like a Tour de France mechanic.

Hungary, on the other hand, was delightfully efficient. We stayed right in the city, on Rakoczi ut, which is a couple of kilometres from everything. The Hungaroring is practically in Budapest's backyard, and we had grandstand seats by the pit lane. Fewer steps, more action. The food? Let's just say that goulash is an underrated performance enhancer.

But the standout performance of the weekend? Not Verstappen. Not McLaren. For me, it was Aston Martin, with Fernando Alonso finishing P5 and Lance Stroll sneaking into P7 in Hungary. Quietly competent. A reminder that the scoreboard doesn't always show who's doing the hardest work behind the scenes.

Back in the office, however, Aston Martin is in a tighter spot. The road car business is under pressure from tariffs, softening demand in China, and an unstable topline outlook. The company's solution was to sell its 4.6% stake in the F1 team for $146 million at a $3.2 billion valuation. The F1 team will still race under the Aston Martin Aramco banner.

It's a fascinating split-screen moment: a team that punches above its weight on the track, while the parent company rethinks survival off it. But perhaps that's the nature of luxury, it's not always about being loud. Sometimes, it's about enduring quietly until you can roar again.

Signing off

Asian markets are mostly in the red this morning, tracking Wall Street's overnight dip as trade tensions resurface. President Trump's latest tariff threats, targeting semiconductor and chip manufacturers, and possibly slapping up to 250% tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, have reignited caution across the region.

In local company news, Shoprite says headline earnings will jump more than 20% for the year, driven by strong growth in both physical and digital sales. Total group revenue from continuing operations is expected to climb 9% to R262.3 billion, while its on-demand delivery service, Sixty60, shot up 47.7%.

US equity futures have edged higher pre-market. The Rand has strengthened to around R17.87 to the US Dollar.

Novo Nordisk, McDonald's, Disney, Uber, Applovin, and Shopify are all set to report earnings today.

Keep walking.