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Amgen cuts fat

12 May , 09:13 am

Market scorecard

US markets ended the week with barely a pulse, taking a breather after a stretch of volatility tied to trade policy jitters. Since the mid-February tariff mess began, investors have been on edge, but a wishy-washy deal with the UK, and some progress on talks with the Chinese seem to have steadied nerves. The S&P 500 finished marginally lower on Friday, and the Nasdaq ended flat.

In company news, Insulet surged 20% on Friday, a day after the insulin pump maker reported stronger-than-anticipated quarterly results. Elsewhere, digital marketing company Trade Desk soared 18.6% thanks to an impressive first quarter. Tesla and First Solar each climbed about 5%, showing there is still appetite for growth stories, especially those tied to the clean energy transition.

In summary, the JSE All-share closed up 1.07%, the S&P 500 fell just 0.07%, and the Nasdaq was unchanged. Not too bad.

Our 10c worth

Bright's banter

Amgen's latest quarter showed that biotech is still very much alive and profitable. The company delivered a strong set of results, beating estimates across the board. Revenue hit $8 billion, up 9% from a year ago. Product sales rose 11%, driven by a healthy 14% bump in volume, and margins expanded nicely too, to 45.7%. The stock is up just over 5% year-to-date, outperforming a sector that's mostly been asleep at the wheel.

The quarter was driven by strength across a broad mix of products. Prolia, the osteoporosis giant, still pulled in over $1.1 billion despite looming biosimilar pressure. Repatha, their cholesterol treatment, surged 27% year-on-year, helped by a 41% jump in volumes as insurers ease access requirements. Blincyto, Evenity, and Tezspire all posted double-digit growth, and the newly launched Tavneos (from the Horizon acquisition) saw sales up 76%. In total, 14 different drugs recorded double-digit volume growth. This is not just a one-drug story, it's a sign of depth in the portfolio.

Biosimilars are also starting to earn their keep. Sales from this portfolio jumped 35% to $735 million, with new launches like Wezlana (a Stelara biosimilar) and Pavblu (a copy of Eylea) already contributing meaningful revenue. For years, biosimilars were dismissed as low-margin placeholders, but Amgen seems to have found a way to make them work.

And then there's the obesity pipeline, where everyone wants a piece of the Novo/Lilly pie. Amgen's MariTide stands out with a once-a-month autoinjector design, offering a potential convenience edge. Phase three trials are underway, and if efficacy data holds up, this could be a material catalyst down the line.

There are a few soft spots: Kyprolis (for multiple myeloma) is feeling the heat from competitors, Enbrel (rheumatoid arthritis) is sliding as expected, and some products like Otezla (plaque psoriasis) and Lumakras (lung cancer) are growing slower than hoped.

Amgen is quietly executing on a playbook we like: a broad portfolio, smart capital allocation, measured R&D bets, and now a real shot at the obesity market. It's not flashy, but it's high quality. We like Amgen as a long-term compounder with optional upside, steady now, but with catalysts that could surprise tomorrow.

One thing, from Paul

I'm back in Joburg, and I decided to freshen things up with another "images only" week. That means I only post a picture, no words. Enjoy!

Byron's beats

Here's a bit of fun to start the week. North Korea is notorious for stealing intellectual property via fake remote workers. If you are a business recruiting thousands of employees you never get to meet, how do you know they won't infiltrate your databases and extract all your business secrets?

As you can imagine, their tactics are sophisticated. They mask IP addresses and connect via laptop farms in America so that it looks like they are operating from the US.

According to Adam Meyers a Senior Vice President at CrowdStrike, there is a simple solution. During the interview, ask the candidate if Kim Jong Un is fat? Apparently, the call is terminated immediately if they are North Korean imposters. Who thought cybersecurity was complicated?

Michael's musings

A few decades ago, it was popular for companies to be well diversified across many different industries. Think of Remgro locally or General Electric in the US. Times have changed, and now companies are penalised if they aren't focused.

Anglo American is one of South Africa's major mining groups. You will recall that they were almost swallowed by BHP last year. As a result, Anglo's current strategy is to become leaner and meaner, by spinning off its stake in De Beers. Before they do that though, De Beers itself is going through a change-up. On Thursday, De Beers announced that they will get out of selling lab-grown diamond (LGD) jewellery, to go back to their roots and focus on natural diamonds.

The company reluctantly got into LGD jewellery in 2018 because "if you can't beat them, join them". Since then, though, the price of LGDs have dropped over 90%. In De Beers' eyes, LGD are now a completely different market to natural diamonds. As such, De Beers would rather focus on the high-margin natural gems.

LGD are generally used in smaller 'cheaper' jewellery pieces. Where larger, name-brand creations are exclusively diamonds. If you see someone wearing Cartier or Van Cleef & Arpels, you know they paid a significant sum to have a natural stone. It makes sense for De Beers to focus just on these customers, and avoid the race to the bottom of prices for LGD.

Signing off

Asian markets opened higher this morning after China and the US reported "substantial progress" in trade talks held in Switzerland, fuelling hopes that tensions may ease. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index pushed higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng extended its winning streak to eight days - its strongest run in over a year.

In local company news, Sibanye-Stillwater delivered a strong Q1, with earnings up 89% to R4.1 billion, despite weaker gold and PGM output. The jump in profitability points to tighter cost control and more favourable commodity pricing.

US equity futures are ripping higher pre-market on those positive trade talks. The Rand held steady at around R18.13 to the US Dollar.

We seem to be set for a positive week on global markets. Good news!