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Downward dawg

16 September, 09:20 am

Market scorecard

US markets pushed higher yesterday to close nicely in the green. Strength in the tech sector saw both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing at fresh record highs, on top of last week's strong run. Standout performers were Google (+4.5%), Tesla (+3.6%) and Uber (+3.1%).

In company news, CoreWeave signed a $6.3 billion deal with Nvidia to extend its AI-hosting capabilities. Elsewhere, Corteva fell 5.7% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the agriscience company, formed from parts of Dow and DuPont, will split itself up into smaller bits. Lastly, some deal is afoot to allow TikTok to continue operating in the US.

In summary, the JSE All-share closed up 0.21%, the S&P 500 rose 0.47%, and the Nasdaq was a splendid 0.94% higher. This feels good.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

Athleisure stocks have performed very poorly for the last 4 years. During Covid, the sector leaders Nike, Adidas, Lululemon, Puma and Under Armour all had a huge run. People were wearing sweatpants and working from home. Those share prices hit all-time highs.

Since then, they've been in reverse gear because of weaker consumer demand. They've also been hammered by rising input costs from tariffs, shipping, and supply chain disruptions. The chart in the picture was made by a Lululemon investor, Jeff Macke, who was complaining about being stuck in the 'downward dog' pose. I've had the same problem.

Fashion styles have shifted and leggings are less popular, because looser fits are now 'in'. Increased competition is also weighing on the sector, with upstart yoga brands like Alo Yoga and Vuori gaining traction in the US market.

I'm a daily runner, and dress rather informally at work, so my entire wardrobe, from shirts to shorts to socks to underpants, is made up of items from either Nike or Lululemon.

Maybe this is why I've stuck doggedly to the idea that these companies will eventually turn their fortunes around. In my opinion, the solution to almost every problem you face is just outside your front door. Pull on your comfy clothes and get some exercise, preferably with a family member or a friend.

Byron's beats

When you think of the magic of compounding, is 10 years a long time? A lot can happen in your life in a decade, but when it comes to compounding your wealth, that's not enough.

Take a look at this chart from Peter Mallouk. $10k invested in the market 10 years ago would be worth $39k today. You have quadrupled your money which is great, but not mind-blowing. As you go back in decades, the growth story really kicks in.

There are two lessons for me here. Firstly, it shows how important time, patience and longevity are to really reap the benefits of compound growth.

Secondly, constantly adding to your investment and building that base really speeds up the process. The bigger the base, the more money you will make when the portfolio grows. Simple as that.

Michael's musings

Yesterday, I wrote about companies that lose their way as new management shifts its focus from the customer to financial metrics. A recent example I came across was a local company called Bearings International (Bi), an industrial supplier owned by the listed group Hudaco. Bi dates back to 1957, and used to have a reputation as a leader in the bearing industry. Now, not so much.

My family does business with Bi, and were meant to receive a largish order by the end of August, which was coming from an Asian factory. When it didn't arrive, they enquired about the delay, and were told that all new orders were frozen until December because they didn't want to risk having excess stock on the books for their 30 November year-end. Management's bonuses are based on keeping stock levels, you get the picture.

The irony is that the Hudaco management team has been very critical of South Africa's lacklustre GDP growth and blames it for their weak sales growth. Maybe delaying new stock orders for three months, resulting in lost sales to competitors, might have something to do with it too?

Bright's banter

Five years after Jeff Bezos' empire dropped $1.3 billion on the Zoox startup, the toaster-shaped EVs are now offering free rides in Las Vegas. These vehicles look like a cross between a tram and a casino shuttle, with no steering wheel, no pedals, just two benches facing each other and a 16-hour battery life.

The market leader in autonomous vehicles is Waymo, with over 10 million paid rides since 2020. Tesla is hot on their heels, but still using cars with human pilots supervising your drive. Zoox hasn't retrofitted a normal car, they are betting that building something weirdly futuristic is the way to win.

Waymo currently has over 2 000 autonomous cars on the road; Zoox is making one per day, and eventually targeting 10 000 a year. Profitability is likely a 2030s story. But Amazon's patient capital means this is less about today's fares and more about owning the future of urban mobility.

Signing off

Asian markets were mixed this morning, with Australia, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan edging higher, while Singapore and China slipped, Hong Kong and New Zealand were flat (like the All Blacks on Saturday), and Malaysia was shut for Malaysia Day.

In local company news, Southern Sun saw local hotel occupancy increase to 59% in the five months to August, with room revenue up 9.7% on higher rates and conferencing demand. The closure of a Seychelles resort weighed on the numbers.

US equity futures are edging higher in pre-market trading. The Rand is at R17.35 to the US Dollar.

The much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting kicks off today in Washington, and both Lisa Cook and Stephen Miran will attend. We expect a 25 basis point cut, with no promises being made about the next meeting.

That's all for now, we'll be back with more insights tomorrow.