
Tesla delivered some horrible numbers on Tuesday night, but the stock still closed up 5.4% yesterday. The jump higher was solely based on Elon Musk saying that he will pull back from his role at DOGE and focus more time on Tesla. You can see how closely Musk is tied to the company's forecast for the future.
Tesla sold 50 000 fewer cars in this quarter compared to a year ago, and 159 000 fewer cars compared to the previous quarter. Given that Tesla is priced as a growth company, they should be growing strongly each quarter, not going backwards. Even worse, they are selling these cars at lower prices.
Overall, revenue for the quarter was down 9.4%, driven by the 20% drop in car sale but helped by a 67% rise in energy and storage sales. Due to uncertainty about tariffs, management has also removed forward guidance.
It isn't all doom and gloom. Tesla is still the most profitable EV maker in the US, well ahead of their EV competitors. Added to that, the company reiterated that production of a new, more-affordable car will start in June this year (that's it pictured below). Having a new car that can sell for less than $15 000 will be a great addition to the stable.
Tesla has $37 billion in cash, which gives it plenty of runway to weather the current negative public perception of the brand and the global trade uncertainty. I remember when Tesla had less than 2 weeks of cash in the bank; that was truly a make-or-break moment. We are not there now.
The future value of the company isn't in EVs though, that is already priced into the shares. The future rests on Musk's new product ideas, in particular Optimus robots and Robotaxis. Quick execution on these two projects will underpin the market capitalisation. If those projects fail or competitors beat them to it, there will be more pain to come in the share price.