Research archive for NVDA

Blackwell is old news, stand by for headlines about Rubin. I'm talking about AI chips from Nvidia. They've only just started shipping the former in a big way, and are already revealing details about the latter.

Nvidia's latest quarterly results showcased another top-notch performance, but the market reaction was not great. The shares opened in the green yesterday, but closed down 8.5%.

DeepSeek made more than just a massive impact on the market on Monday. It is also dominating the app charts in recent days. I saw some articles suggesting that the drop in Nvidia's share price is the least of the Western world's worries. DeepSeek officially marks the entry of Chinese companies in the race for Artificial Intelligence dominance.

Shares of SoftBank surged up to 10.2% after President Trump announced a massive AI push involving SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle.

The US government announced on Monday it would further restrict AI chip and technology exports. The regulation divides the world into three tiers. About 18 countries, including Japan, Britain, South Korea and the Netherlands, will be exempt from the rules. Another 120 other countries, including South Africa, Singapore, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will face country caps. Arms-embargoed countries like Russia, China and Iran will be barred from receiving any high-end chips at all.

CoreWeave is preparing for a US IPO in mid-2025, aiming for a valuation of over $35 billion. The New Jersey-based AI cloud platform plans to raise over $3 billion, which is great news for Nvidia, one of its original investors.

Nvidia has had a spectacular rise over the last few years, which is well documented. But did you know that the company has been listed for 25 years? That's a long time and it certainly hasn't been plain sailing throughout that period.

Nvidia is now the largest company in the world, so every time it releases results they are described as "the most important earnings report in history". We are certainly witnessing history in the making because no company has ever grown so fast, to such size and scale.

Nvidia's exciting new Blackwell AI chip has its first official customer. The lucky buyer at the front of the very long queue was Softbank, run by long-time Nvidia fan, Masayoshi Son.

Nvidia has been the early winner of the AI boom; there is no doubt about that. The big question is, who will be next? The most likely answer is the guys that have been buying all those chips, namely the big tech companies. There are various theories about returns per GPU purchased but let's be honest, these businesses do very different things and calculating an IRR on the capital invested is too generic.

A Sankey diagram is a visualisation used to depict a flow from one set of values to another. They are often used to depict the financial results of large companies. By showing revenues on the left, costs in red falling out the bottom and resulting profits in green on the right, you can quite easily see how a business is doing.

On Wednesday night, Nvidia released their quarterly results - probably the most anticipated of any company on the S&P 500. There were videos on social media of people gathering at bars in Manhattan, but instead of watching their favourite sports team, they were watching Bloomberg to hear about how much the company had grown. The stock closed at $125.61 on Tuesday, but is down about 5% since then at $119.37, which is weird because the company smashed expectations.

The surge in the Nvidia share price has been incredible to watch. They make the best chips around, and customers can't get enough of them, which allows Nvidia to charge massive profit margins. I recently saw two articles highlighting the lengths that customers will go to get their hands on Nvidia chips.

Some people are worrying about Nvidia's high share price, but not me. I spoke to two long-standing Vestact clients yesterday and both were wondering if they should "take some profits". I persuaded them not to.

Naturally, people are asking when the competition will jump in and start grabbing some of that pie? That question is tough to answer with certainty, but at this stage, it looks like it will be very difficult for competitors to gain market share or even for the likes of Amazon and Microsoft to build competitive chips in-house.