MTN subscriber numbers

MTN released their quarterly subscriber numbers this morning, and they managed to increase subscribers by 3.8 percent quarter on quarter to 182.7 million folks. Due to a more solid than expected last quarter, the company has raised their subscriber guidance for the full year by nearly two and a half million subscribers to 23.7 million additions. A rather bland looking Official Announcement- Thursday, 25 October 2012, MTN quarterly update is available via their website. But I am a glass half full guy, rather some information than none at all, not so? Yes. I hacked the release and have posted this table, which I think provides you with all the information that you need:





The ARPU's continue to fall in Dollar terms, in Syria the impact of the civil war has had a monster negative impact, but strangely they still managed to add subscribers there. It feels just plain weird to talk about the impact of a civil war on a business, but this has always been the reality of investing in this company. Many of the places they operate are not places high up on your holiday destinations list. But, they are places that the company does business in. I have this long standing debate with my uncle on Facebook about MTN operating in Iran. My argument is that if it is emancipation that he wants, communication is the best way to bring about long lasting change. He says be careful, the company is going to feel the brunt of the US. What does help him making up his mind is that he is American you see, but I certainly hear his point of view.


That being said, I am guessing that the Dollar ARPU's presented to us by MTN are at the official exchange rate and not at the deflated rate. Nigeria, Iran and then South Africa is how the pecking order goes, as far as subscribers are concerned. There is only one other country with over ten million subscribers and that is Ghana, with 11.270 million subscribers. Amazing. But that (in Ghana) is out of a total population of 24.3 million, so you can quite quickly see that MTN has a position of dominance in that geography, possibly one of the most exciting countries on our continent. Political law and order, property rights and upholding the constitution has meant that by most global measures Ghana has made more progress than any of their African peers, bar for Mauritius. Arguably, you could say on the "mainland". More recently oil reserves, which are amongst the largest on the continent (fifth in fact) have been managed properly. Bright future I think for that country, still poor by global standards, which means that there are still many possibilities.

In their biggest geography, in terms of subscribers, Nigeria, MTN was able to maintain their market share whilst it seems like there is an aggressive pricing from all parties, most through promotions. Billable minutes, just for the month of September increased by 24 percent against the prior months. So what is happening here? More people are talking more at cheaper rates as the competition hots up. Data continues to grow, but feel for the mobile users up there, they still have to use 2G networks, which as MTN say are congested as a result of more folks making calls. MTN continues to improve and upgrade their existing infrastructure up there, imagine when the internet starved get real speeds and better handsets. We still maintain that data has a long way to go on our continent, and in MTN's territories.


We continue to buy the stock. The Iranian standoff with basically the rest of the developed world and their hostility towards many others does place MTN in more than just a little bit of a pickle. It is a very serious situation. I did read however that Iran was again ready to talk about their nuclear ambitions. This remains the only sore spot on what is a very bright future for this company still. I like them a lot and with Sub-Saharan African growth to top global growth for the foreseeable future, this is a luxury item spend in many emerging markets. Cheaper smartphones are already making their way into this market.