MTN subscriber numbers, steady growth

One of our longest held companies (from the start) reported subscriber numbers yesterday. We are of course taking about MTN. Here is the copy paste from the release:

"MTN Group recorded 158 590 000 subscribers at 30 September 2011. This is a 4.1% increase for the quarter from 152 272 000 subscribers recorded at 30 June 2011. During the quarter, MTN has successfully maintained market share in most of its markets. Although social unrest remained a factor in some countries, Syria, Yemen and Cote d'Ivoire increased net connections during the quarter."

This is when measured against the last quarter, 4.1 percent up, or 6.3 million subscribers. Do you even remember how many subscribers they had this time in 2010? 2009? 2008? No? OK, so I checked it out. Here goes, same time 2010 MTN recorded a 4 percent increase in their subscriber base from 129.2 million subscribers to 134.4 million, an increase of 5.2 million subscribers. In 2009, on nearly the same day, the subscriber base grew five percent on the prior quarter from 103.1 million to 108.5 million folks, 5.4 million folks. In 2008 at the same point (Halloween in fact) the subscriber base grew 9 percent from 74 million to 80.7 million, 6.7 million new subscribers in the quarter.


So it seems to me that they are adding more or less the same number of subscribers a quarter (for this quarter) for the last four years. Ex growth? Hmmm... no, I would not say so at all. They have more than doubled their subscriber base over the last four years. Quite unlikely that it can happen again, but they are not ex growth. Here is the full RELEASE OF SUBSCRIBER NUMBERS FOR THE QUARTER ENDED 30 September 2011. I have taken the top three subscriber bases for MTN, Nigeria, South Africa and Iran. I was pretty surprised with the South Africa increase and the jump to above 20 million subscribers.

The next "thing" to look for is the average revenue per user number or ARPU, if you like acronyms. In South Africa over the quarter, they were flat. I have always maintained that the rest of Africa ARPU's are low, but that would grow off a very low base. Data is the key to me for the future of almost all mobile businesses. And I think more so in an African context, where the fixed lines are far and few between. And I think I can say that they are flattening out and not declining any more. That is a pretty dangerous assumption, I know, great examples of falling ARPU's because of pricing wars exist in India and East Africa, and that is recent. I am pleased with these numbers. I am pleased that data still has a long way to go in an African and local context. We continue to accumulate this stock.