Aspen, will, they or wont they give Sigma a real wind

Aspen, will, they or wont they give Sigma a real wind. Aspen have lowered their price for the Australian distressed company, shareholders down under not happy. Mooi river is not just a pretty place, but rather a the point where a key piece of economic data comes out every month. And you know the best thing about it, the data, it is fresh and new, long ahead of the fellows over at the official releases. One more time, courtesy of the think tank at Greenfields farm, shot dudes. All this double dip talk is attracting more and more attention and making me hungry for octopus tentacles, all the rage in Germany as from last night.



OK, the Aspen deal or no deal is hotting up. Two points here, Aspen are not hell bent on doing a deal at any cost, they have looked at European generic businesses submitted bids and lost out before. The second point is that over here at Vestact we have enough confidence in the company management over at Aspen to believe that as big shareholders they would do the "right thing". A journalist asked me a few questions and I emailed her back, here goes the interaction:



First she asked: "Now that there's a bit more, and given today's release, would you be prepared to chat to me over the phone about whether a tie-up is a.) likely, given the lower bid and b.) desirable, given that Sigma has only recently released a profit warning?" And when she refers to a little more, she is talking about this release Aspen Sigma SENS Cautionary Renewal.

I answered: "Yeah, that is what a lot of people have been saying, perhaps they are being too cheeky, that is what the Aussie (well, actually Bloomberg, I wasn't thinking) media are saying:


Aspen Lowers Its Sigma Takeover Offer by 8.3 Percent


This line:


"The list of caveats there would suggest that there's still a lot of uncertainty," Dan Hurren, a health-care analyst at UBS AG, said by phone from Sydney. "There's a view out there that this offer is too low and Sigma can trade out of this, and it's undervalued. A lot of people think that," Hurren said.


Judging from what shareholders of Sigma appear to be doing, you might well argue that this is starting to hot up.


AUD = 6.5 ZAR


Aspen would assume net debt of A$785 million. = 5.1025 (bn Rands)




This seemingly is a Metorex slash Supergroup type scenario. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sigma with a deep discounted rights issue if shareholders kick up too much of a stink.




It is starting to emerge that with some sanding and a spot of polish Sigma, could look better than it does at face value, and hence the Aspen intent, remembering that they have made great headway over the years down under."
I left her with the same thoughts at the beginning of this piece on Aspen, that management would do the right thing in their very well respected opinion.