Under the hood

24 October , 09:13 am

Market scorecard

US markets rallied after easing trade tensions pushed the S&P 500 near record highs. Presidents Trump and Xi will meet next week, whoopee. Energy stocks also climbed, seeing as Russian supply might soon be "out of bounds".

In company news, Super Micro Computer shares tumbled 8.7% as the AI server wannabe shocked investors with weak numbers. Elsewhere, Palantir rose 2.8% after announcing a partnership with Lumen Technologies to deploy its AI software. Finally, Las Vegas Sands jumped 12.4% thanks to a sterling quarter at its Singapore and Macau casinos.

Here's how it went, the JSE All-share closed up 1.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.58%, and the Nasdaq was 0.89% higher. Great stuff!

Our 10c worth

Byron's beats

On Wednesday, Tesla released their third quarter results. There is a lot going on underneath that hood, which is funny because the mechanics underneath the hood of a Tesla car are pretty simple.

Auto sales were a little uninspiring, with revenue up just 6%. That has been the theme over the last few years. Although there are some signs of life, thanks to lower interest rates and a strong following in countries that don't care much about US politics. Sales in South Korea, Japan and Singapore set new records, while the Model Y remains the top-ranked vehicle in Norway and Switzerland.

The energy business was the shining light. It grew by 43.7% with gross profit margins of 31.4%, well above that of the auto business. The biggest challenge for renewable energy is managing the base load with batteries. Tesla aims to solve those problems and is doing a good job of it. They are building really large commercial battery storage systems called Megapack 3s which are currently being installed at their own manufacturing plants. Tariffs, unfortunately, were a big headwind for this part of the business.

Now for the exciting stuff, self-driving software (FSD), robotaxis and robots. Musk says that Tesla is the leader in real-world AI and I think he is right. The AI we usually talk about is asking a chatbot to make you a logo for your weekend cricket team. Real-world AI is directing cars through traffic without a driver. Version 14 of FSD has been launched and seems to be working well. Only 12% of Tesla owners have FSD so this represents a big opportunity.

The robotaxi service has been growing well in Austin since it launched last quarter. They have just launched in San Francisco. There are still safety supervisors in the passenger seats of these cars, watching over the software, but the plan is to get rid of them in Austin next year.

The Optimus robot version 3 is launching next year and the goal is to build 1 million of these by 2027. Though one should take Musk's goals with a pinch of salt.

There are many exciting things going on with plenty of synergies amongst the projects and Musk's other businesses. The current auto fleet is providing data for the robotaxis. The robotaxis will provide a lot of practical data back to the fleet. This should speed up the process to full autonomy. Soon any Tesla owner could simply turn their car into a robotaxi to make money on the side. Grok (X's chatbot AI) has been integrated into the cars in North America. Optimus production can be done in the auto factories using SpaceX ideas and expertise.

Tesla trades at lofty valuations and is not for everyone but if you back Elon Musk and want in on his genius, then Tesla is worth a small punt in your portfolio.

One thing, from Paul

My Friday columns are for life advice, and the simpler the better. I picked this one up from a guy I follow online; it's to tighten up your introduction.

If someone asks you what you do for a living, what do you say? If you ramble, are cryptic, or are self-deprecating, that's bad.

Some people were taught by their parents to downplay their achievements, so they say things like "I do my best", "not much really", "stuff on my computer", or "part-time consulting". Those are all hopeless answers.

If you have a sharp, concise and confident answer, that's good. Sell yourself.

Don't just say where you work, say what you actually do there. Practice your one-line introduction on a family member, and take their feedback on board. Switch it up, narrow it down.

This makes it easier for people to place you, and might even result in work referrals and new networking opportunities.

Michael's musings

Calling short-term market moves is nearly impossible, it's much easier to pick a very long-term trend, and invest accordingly. For example, the price of gold has just had one of its most volatile weeks in over a decade, on almost no news flow. Gold is meant to be stable, with small fluctuations, not jumping around 5% a day. I don't think anyone would have forecast these moves coming into the week.

Here is a much better trend to back. According to the US Census Bureau, people aged 65 and older are the fastest-growing age group in the US, expected to be 47% bigger by 2050. As people age, they require more medical care, which is why we own shares in Stryker.

Stryker sells medical devices, including specialised joint replacements, as well as basic things such as hospital beds. Without needing to do anything, Stryker will see its market size grow 50% in the coming years. This trend will continue regardless of what the Fed decides to do with interest rates next week, or what happens with the Ukraine war.

Backing long-term trends makes it much easier to tune out the noise and sleep easily at night. We don't know what will happen with the US market over the next month, but that doesn't matter.

Bright's banter

Hermes continues to glide through the luxury slowdown with enviable grace. Third-quarter sales rose 9.6% to EUR3.88 billion, slightly shy of expectations but still ahead of rivals, underscoring the brand's near-immunity to economic jitters.

Sales were driven by strong demand across Japan, the Middle East, and the Americas. For the first nine months of 2025, revenue rose 9% to EUR11.9 billion, led by a 13% jump in Leather Goods & Saddlery, the house's enduring cashmere-wrapped cash cow.

Jewelry, homeware, and ready-to-wear held firm, offsetting softer perfume and watch sales. CFO Eric du Halgouet said Hermes' growth remains anchored in craftsmanship and steady investment, proving that quiet luxury still sells loud.

The maker of Birkin bags remains powered by ultra-wealthy clients, who are evidently not tightening belts just yet. China's Golden Week gave a welcome boost, though management warns of tougher comparisons ahead.

Investors, spoiled by Hermes's history of outperformance, marked the stock down 4.4% on the day, proof that even perfection now has to surprise. With Grace Wales Bonner taking over men's ready-to-wear, Hermes joins peers in refreshing its creative ranks.

Signing off

Asian markets are mostly higher this morning, on the confirmation that the two Presidents are set to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. It will be their first face-to-face meeting since Trump returned to power.

In local company news, Adcorp shares popped 13% after the staffing and HR group said headline earnings nearly doubled in the first half, driven by tight cost control, stable margins, and early wins from its restructuring efforts.

US equity futures are higher pre-market, and the Rand is trading at around R17.33 to the US Dollar.

Next week is a big one for Vestact stocks as many of the tech titans report numbers, and the Fed announces its decision on US interest rates.

Enjoy the last weekend in October.