Adult rated

21 July , 08:48 am

Market scorecard

US markets wrapped up the week on a flat note. Reports surfaced that President Trump is pushing for a minimum 15% to 20% tariff on EU goods, deal or no deal. That hawkish stance on trade kept a lid on market enthusiasm. The Nasdaq Composite managed to eke out a fresh record close, helped by a few strong tech names, while the S&P 500 was virtually unchanged.

In company news, American Express reported stronger-than-expected billing growth in the second quarter, thanks to its affluent customer base continuing to drive spending. Elsewhere, Meta has refused to sign the EU's AI Code of Practice. The company says the voluntary guidelines aimed at helping firms navigate the new AI Act go too far.

On Friday, the JSE All-share closed up 1.37%, the S&P 500 was unchanged, and the Nasdaq rose a tiny 0.05%.

Our 10c worth

Byron's beats

Netflix reported solid numbers last week. They beat analyst estimates across the board, although most of that came from a weaker USD. Revenues grew by 16% with operating margins of 34%. Guidance for the rest of the year suggests they can maintain that 16% growth rate.

The company no longer reports subscriber numbers. The business has grown up now and is focusing on adult metrics such as cash flows and revenues. Speaking of which, free cash flows for the quarter were $2.3 billion of which $1.7 billion will be used for paying down debt and share buybacks.

Advertising is officially live in all its regions and is doing very well. 50% of new subs choose the cheaper option with ads. As users watch more shows, the algorithms pick up their likes and dislikes and feed them targeted adverts accordingly.

Have you seen the new homepage? Probably not as things take a bit of time to get to the bottom of Africa. It has been rolled out to 50% of their users and is apparently outperforming all engagement expectations.

Netflix is a mature business, spitting out cash and buying back shares. That's just fine; it's nice to see your children grow up into mature adults, adding value to society. We've held this one since they were still renting out DVDs and remain happy holders of this quality business.

Michael's musings

We aren't financial advisors or retirement planners, but given our industry, we do have views and insights on retirement. The primary goal for anyone is to ensure that they don't run out of money in old age. Then, they can focus on leaving something behind for their beneficiaries.

The biggest challenge to achieving those goals is knowing how long you will live. Thanks to medical and lifestyle advances, life expectancy continues to increase, meaning that even retiring at 65 requires two decades of income post-retirement.

Once you have a rough life expectancy estimate, the next challenge is to figure out how much to spend. You don't want to skimp and risk dying with tons of money in your bank account. You also don't want to blast through your savings and end up destitute in old age.

The best approach is to work backwards. Start with how much you will need on a monthly basis to live the lifestyle you want - don't forget to include the costs of things like annual holidays. Once you have that, multiply your monthly expenses value by 300, and that will give you your retirement value target.

For example, if your monthly expenses are R100 000, you need to save R30 000 000. The math relates to the 4% rule, which says you can withdraw 4% of your nest egg in year one, and then adjust your withdrawal each year by inflation, and you should have enough money for the next 30 years.

There have been many blogs written about the 4% rule, and how it might be too conservative. Also, it was created using US data, so it doesn't translate 100% to South African measures. Nonetheless, it is a good target to aim for. You can read about the maths behind the rule here - The 4% rule.

Bright's banter

Pop Mart, the Chinese toymaker behind the cult-favorite Labubu doll, expects first-half profit to surge over 350%, with revenue up more than 200%. It's a staggering rise powered by a global obsession with the mischievous, pointy-eared figure that's become a pop culture icon, often seen dangling from the handbags of celebrities like Rihanna and BlackPink's Lisa.

Founded in 2010 by entrepreneur Wang Ning, Pop Mart started as a simple Beijing retail store selling designer toys and blind boxes. The real inflection point came when it partnered with niche illustrators and toy artists, including Kasing Lung, the creator of Labubu, a cheeky, serrated-tooth character from Lung's "The Monsters" universe. The mystery-box model (where you don't know which character you're getting) added a gamified twist to collecting.

That strategy worked. What began as a subculture among Chinese Gen Zs has gone global. Pop Mart's Hong Kong-listed shares have soared 511% over the past year, giving it a market cap of $44 billion, more than Hasbro, Mattel, and Sanrio combined. Wang Ning has a net worth of $20 billion.

Last month, a human-sized Labubu sold for $150 000 at an auction in Beijing. The company's gross profit margin is hovering near 67%, higher than Xiaomi, Miniso, and many luxury brands. With strong brand equity, tight cost control, and a direct line into the wallets of global superfans, Pop Mart is no longer just a toymaker, it's a cultural export machine. . . until the fad fizzles out like Beanie Babies.

Linkfest, lap it up

Liquid Death is expensive water. The brand thrives in the US, but wasn't able to replicate its success in the UK - Why Liquid Death failed in the UK.

The young adult genre is getting older. Research has found that the protagonist is no longer a teenager in many cases - Always check what your kids read.

Signing off

Asian markets opened the week in positive territory, shrugging off political jitters in Japan where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's political capital took a knock. His ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in Sunday's election, a setback that could hamper reform efforts. Beijing kept key lending rates unchanged, signalling a wait-and-see approach on further economic support.

In local company news, BHP just dropped its latest production numbers. They hit record highs in iron ore and copper production, with copper output surpassing 2 million tonnes for the first time. They're predicting more growth in the coming year, with copper production expected to stay strong and iron ore output possibly hitting 269 million tonnes.

US equity futures are slightly lower pre-market. The Rand is hovering at around R17.81 to the US Dollar.

Keep an eye on these major players as they roll out their quarterly numbers this week: SAP, Intuitive Surgical, Alphabet, Tesla, and Blackstone.

It's a new week with new opportunities. Have a good one.