Bouncy castle

25 April , 09:05 am

Market scorecard

Wall Street roared higher again yesterday, thanks to easing trade tensions and dovish signals from the Fed. The Nasdaq is up over 5% this week, and the S&P 500 is now down just 5.8% for 2025 after bottoming at minus 15% earlier in April. This market is like a bouncy castle. Just stay long and strong.

In company news, Google rose 4.8% after hours as it beat earnings expectations thanks to strong ad sales. Elsewhere, Chipotle and PepsiCo added some spice of their own, warning that tariffs are starting to nibble at margins and could drive up costs.

Izolo, the JSE All-share was up 0.79%, and the S&P 500 rose 2.03%, and the Nasdaq was 2.74% higher. We love to see it!

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

It's Friday already, so time for some life advice. It occurs to me that it's wise to avoid arriving at strong opinions too quickly. Keep your wits about you, and try to stay cheerful.

Here are some recent examples. What did you think of the plan to increase VAT in South Africa? You could have had a lot to say about that, why it was a bad (or good) idea and who was to blame for taking that step. In the end, the proposal got canned. VAT gaan aan? We move on.

Consider Trump's trade proposals. For some reason, the man likes tariffs and always has. He won't listen to reason, so he implements a mad scheme. Everyone loses their minds. The market crashes. Then he withdraws the plan. Don't waste your time trying to understand it all.

It's better to hold weak opinions, and be prepared to change them often as new information comes to hand.

Michael's musings

The price of gold has done rather well recently. People have been buying bullion because of all the volatility in stock markets, a weakening Dollar and talk of rising inflation. It's at $3 400 an ounce, up 30% this year! When gold goes up a lot, we have clients asking about owning some.

We are not gold bugs. Unlike equities, gold doesn't grow, it doesn't pay a dividend and it doesn't generate profit that can be reinvested into expanding operations. We agree with Warren Buffett - gold costs money to get out the ground and then it costs more money to store it.

Generally, when people promote gold as the 'safe-haven' asset, they cherry-pick date ranges to make it seem like a good investment. Gold has had two periods of good growth. The first was from 1970 to 1980, when the Dollar decoupled from gold and prices went from $300 to $2 700 per ounce. Amazing!

The next two decades were horrific, with the gold price plunging from $2 700 back down to $470. It was not a 'safe haven' then? Over those 30 years, the price went from $300 to $470, with a big spike in the middle. Since then, it's has had an okay time - $470 to the current $3 400 for an average annual return of 8.6%. Satisfactory, but not amazing, with some big swings along the way.

What about the last ten years? Since 2015, gold has returned 8% per year, on average. The S&P 500 averaged 13% over the same period. I know which asset class I would rather be in for the long term.

Bright's banter

In the not-so-corporate corners of downtown Los Angeles, James Kim has built Stiiizy into a $1.5 billion cannabis empire. He started the business in the grey market before California legalised weed and now boasts 50-plus stores, over $800 million in annual sales, and a 7% market share in that state.

Kim's backstory reads like a movie script. He's a high school dropout, combat vet, swap-meet hustler turned vape king. He launched Stiiizy in 2017 with a few friends, a stash of Chinese vapes, and THC oil sourced locally. They now crank out 7 000 kgs of dank a month, filling 100 000 vapes a day, and operating in seven US states.

Along the way, Stiiizy has collected lawsuits, regulatory heat, and plenty of whispers about black-market operations - none of which seem to be slowing it down. While most cannabis brands are engineered by ex-consultants with Whole Foods aesthetics, Stiiizy's authenticity resonates with its core consumer: real stoners.

The last time a weed venture was this popular, it was the secretive operation with ghost backers, JuicyFields, which turned out to be a Russian-backed scam. I'll leave that story for another day.

Signing off

Global stocks rallied for a fourth straight day, enjoying the best streak in over two months as trade tensions eased. Hopes rose after China hinted at suspending a 125% tariff on some US imports, and US officials floated the idea of a potential trade "understanding" next week. South Korea's market gained 1%, and Japan's Nikkei jumped 2%.

In local company news, Cashbuild's half-year results are in, and while the hammer didn't swing wildly, it did its job. Revenue climbed a respectable 5% to R6.1 billion, and headline earnings eked out a 1% increase to land at R120 million.

US equity futures are in the green pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.83 to the greenback.

It's time for another long weekend! Enjoy being free on Monday.