Buy the chip

28 February , 09:11 am

Market scorecard

US markets had a bad day yesterday, with high-growth stocks bearing the brunt of the selloff. The S&P 500 wiped out all of its 2025 gains after Donald Trump stated that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to take effect on March 4, alongside plans for an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports.

In company news, Dell Technologies slipped 1.2% after-hours, despite delivering a bullish outlook. Elsewhere, Tesla is moving to secure approval for ride-hailing services in California, marking a key step toward carrying paying customers. Finally, Apollo Global is in talks to lead a $35 billion financing package for Meta Platforms to fund data centre development in the US.

At the close, the JSE All-share was down 1.13%, the S&P 500 fell 1.59%, and the Nasdaq was 2.78% lower. Disappointing, but not a calamity.

Our 10c worth

Bright's banter

Nvidia's latest quarterly results showcased another top-notch performance, but the market reaction was not great. The shares opened in the green yesterday, but closed down 8.5%.

The chipmaker reported a 78% jump in revenue to $39.3 billion, rocketing through expectations. The data centre division, now its main growth engine, raked in $35.6 billion, a 93% year-on-year increase, as demand for AI computing power remained rock solid. The company also posted $22 billion in net income, an 80% rise from the previous year.

Guidance for the current quarter came in at $43 billion, slightly ahead of consensus estimates of $42.3 billion. Nvidia also revealed that its latest AI chip, Blackwell, generated $11 billion in sales in its first quarter of shipping, marking its fastest-ever product growth story.

Nvidia is still the undisputed leader in AI hardware, and its chips remain the gold standard for large-scale AI workloads. The company is effectively printing money, its data centre unit alone now makes more revenue than Intel and AMD combined.

While the recent market reaction suggests a maturing growth story, it's worth noting that Nvidia beat revenue forecasts by the smallest margin since early 2023, setting a new (and incredibly high) bar for expectations.

Nvidia is not cheap, competition is intensifying, and there's always the risk of AI spending slowing down. However, with Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google all committing record sums to AI infrastructure, the runway for Nvidia's growth remains intact. Long-term investors should be buying the dip.

One thing, from Paul

Here's some very basic life advice that is worth repeating: don't put all your eggs in one basket.

To use a practical example from our business, if Nvidia is such a great company, why didn't we put every cent we had into that share in March 2017 when we added it to our recommended portfolio? It was trading at $2.54 per share and it's up 5 000 percent since then.

The problem is that 8 years ago, there were many other good-looking companies to choose from. Nvidia seems like an obvious pick now, but that's with the benefit of hindsight.

Consider Boeing, one of the finest industrial companies in the USA, and one of only two major commercial jet aircraft manufacturers. In March 2017 it traded at $178 per share. It went much higher than that in 2019, touching $440 per share, but has since fallen back to where it started. So that's a return of zero from Boeing in the same 8 years.

Byron's beats

There have been some concerns around the Trump administration's treatment of big pharma, especially Robert F Kennedy, the recently appointed Secretary of Health and Human Services. Kennedy is a renowned sceptic about the drug industry and has spoken out against some vaccines. I'm not going to get into that debate here, but what I do know is that the current administration is very Pro-America.

I am sure they are delighted to see that Eli Lilly plans to spend $27 billion to build 4 new production facilities in the US. At a press conference in Washington DC called "Lilly in America" CEO Dave Ricks (pictured) laid out their plans to make the largest pharmaceutical investment in US history.

We like Eli Lilly because it's American and will be supported by Americans. I have no doubt that this kind of investment will be supported by government too. Most importantly, the new facilities will help them meet the huge demand that is coming for their weight-loss drugs.

Michael's musings

A key part of our job at Vestact is positioning your portfolio for where growth will come in the future. We are long-term investors who would want to own companies for at least 5 years, preferably for a few decades. We've owned Apple, Google and Visa for over 15 years.

At the moment, the tech companies are the best positioned for future growth. Their core internet-based businesses are still growing quickly. Every day, more people get internet connectivity for the first time, and others upgrade to faster internet speeds. This all leads to higher usage of these products.

The big tech companies are at the forefront of the AI boom. AI is arguably going to be as big as the internet, it's the next frontier. If you want to invest to take advantage of AI, you need to own the tech titans.

Quantum computing is another revolutionary future technology. For a long time, Google has been working on quantum chips as a side project. In the same way, Google was one of the few companies working on AI ten years ago. Now, Microsoft and Amazon have announced quantum chip development projects of their own. The quantum computing race is heating up.

There aren't many companies around that can spend tens of millions each year on R&D for future technologies that might not succeed. The tech titans have enough money that these side bets aren't a drag on profits. In addition, they are also able to hire the smartest people around.

Signing off

The global equities selloff continued its downward momentum in Asia, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index dropping to its lowest level in over two weeks. The screens are red from New Delhi and Taipei City to Beijing and Tokyo. Sounds like a song.

In local company news, Truworths' sales rose 2.4% to R12.5 billion, driven by a strong performance from its UK-based Office business, which saw sales surge 13.3%. Online sales also shone.

US equity futures rose slightly pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.50 to the US Dollar.

The Fed's favourite gauge of inflation is due later today, and it's expected to show a cooling trend. Core PCE inflation is predicted to slow to 2.6% - the lowest since June. This could be a sign that price hikes are easing, giving the Fed some breathing room.

It's been a difficult week. Enjoy some time off this weekend.