Software GOAT

31 January , 09:14 am

Market scorecard

After a sloppy start to the trading day, US markets closed in the green thanks to strong consumer spending data. Around 85% of S&P 500 companies advanced, with small caps leading the charge. The world's most important stock, Nvidia, closed in the green.

In company news, Mastercard rose 3.1% after reporting earnings that beat estimates, driven by growth beyond its core payments business. Elsewhere, Southwest Airlines flagged higher-than-expected costs due to rising labour expenses, taking some shine off strong leisure travel demand. Finally, UPS had its worst trading day ever (-14.1%) after announcing it would cut volumes on Amazon, its largest customer, to avoid making losses.

At the close, the JSE All-share was up 0.43%, the S&P 500 lifted 0.50%, and the Nasdaq was a decent 0.19% higher.

Our 10c worth

Byron's beats

Microsoft released results on Wednesday night which looked good. The market, though, found something it didn't like and the share price dropped around 6%. Whatevs, we are not interested in these short term gyrations, unless they are up. Joking but not joking.

Revenues increased by 12% off what is already a very high base, coming in at just under $70 billion for the quarter. Operating income increased 17% to $31.7 billion and net income increased 10% to $24.1 billion. Those numbers are just astounding.

CEO Satya Nadella (pictured) said that their AI business has already surpassed an annual run rate of $13 billion after growing 175% year over year. That is only 5% of total revenues but growing fast. We expect AI to continue to thrive as Microsoft works hard to unlock the full benefit of all the money they have spent on Nvidia chips.

DeepSeek is a direct competitor to OpenAI's ChatGPT which has Microsoft as its biggest shareholder. If what they are saying is true, and their technology is open source, then OpenAI should be able to learn some new tricks. Having said that, there is suspicion of foul play and OpenAI has opened up an investigation into whether DeepSeek stole data from OpenAI. The saga continues.

Amongst their other highlights, the Microsoft Azure cloud segment grew 21%, but the market wanted more. Huh.

Microsoft returned $9.7 billion to shareholders this quarter via dividends and share buybacks.

The share price has actually lagged the Nasdaq over the last year, it's gone sideways since February 2024. We see this as a good buying opportunity because Microsoft is one of the greatest companies of all time.

One thing, from Paul

Here's some Friday advice for South Africans: set up your life so that you're as free as possible from exposure to bureaucracy. Minimise your personal contact with all arms of the government.

Certain government services cannot be avoided, like applying for a passport at Home Affairs, or paying your taxes on SARS e-Filing. Or driving on the crappy roads.

For everything else, go private. Organise (and pay for) your own healthcare, security and transportation. Avoid the police and the courts at all costs. Stay away from public hospitals. Educate your children at private schools. Put solar panels on your roof and a big battery in your basement, and go off-grid. Drill a borehole and buy your drinking water from Pick n Pay.

If you run a business, avoid contracting with any local, provincial or national government departments. Decline all opportunities from state-owned entities, parastatals or agencies.

This will be expensive, but it's worth it. You'll be a free agent, able to live a quiet life with minimal frustrations. Love your country, but keep your expectations low.

Michael's musings

Earlier this week Shoprite and Woolworths released operating updates for the six months to the end of December. The numbers were roughly what you would expect. Shoprite continues to eat the market share of its competitors thanks to its brilliant operational capabilities, with Sixty60 growing at 47.1%.

Woolworths reported very good food sales, which has been the stable base for the business for many years now. Clothing was a disappointment, which isn't a surprise to those who tried to do summer clothes shopping in spring last year. Woolies Dash, the online food delivery service, grew by 49.2%, although off a smaller base.

These numbers are a reminder that companies who innovate can still find growth in South Africa's stagnant economy. I use Sixty60 about twice a week, and would use it more if Checkers fresh produce was better quality. Woolies Dash still has some bugs, so I don't use it often. Last week, I ordered everything I needed for a braai from Woolies. All that arrived was the sparkling water and garlic bread because they had run out of stock of everything else.

Bright's banter

LVMH's latest results suggest a turning point for the luxury sector. Despite a challenging 2024, the company delivered 1% organic sales growth to EUR85 billion, outperforming expectations. The key driver was resilience in the US and Europe, while China remained weak, though not deteriorating further.

The fashion and leather goods division, including Louis Vuitton and Dior, outperformed, dipping only 1% instead of the expected 3% drop. Watches & jewellery also grew 3%, thanks to investments in Tiffany, while wines & spirits continued to struggle, with full-year operating income down 36%.

Looking ahead, management is optimistic for 2025, citing a strong start in January. They certainly have a strong balance sheet and a well-diversified portfolio of brands, so they are the lead steer.

Signing off

Asian markets are down this morning. Apparently this is a delayed reaction to DeepSeek's impact on the AI market, with chip manufacturers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both in the red today.

In local news, the SARB cut interest rates again, although it was a 4-2 vote, where two MPC members thought a hold was better. In company news, Glencore met its 2024 production targets, buoyed by a strong second half and the Elk Valley Resources acquisition, which boosted steelmaking coal output.

US equity futures are firming nicely in early pre-market, so hopefully we will finish the month on a high note. The Rand is trading at around R18.46 to the greenback.

You survived January, well done. Have a great weekend.