Rocket launch

02 December , 09:29 am

Market scorecard

US markets closed up in a shortened session on Friday, with the S&P 500 hitting fresh record highs. November was exceptional for the index, the gain of 5.7% was the best of 2024, bringing year-to-date returns to 27%. US equities attracted $141 billion in inflows over the past four weeks.

In company news, Amazon is stepping up its chip game, developing in-house processors to reduce dependence on industry giants like Nvidia and AMD. Elsewhere, Nissan shares edged higher after news that CFO Stephen Ma will step down. The stock rose 1% in early trading but remains down nearly 35% year-to-date.

On Friday, the JSE All-share was down 0.33%, but the S&P 500 rose 0.56%, and the Nasdaq was 0.83% higher. Good, good.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

I've decided that my newsletter contributions on Mondays will henceforth be about Vestact's asset management business. Here goes.

We are sometimes asked why we don't simply run a fund in the US, and have our clients each own a small slice. Our peers in the industry often do this, because it's much simpler to administrate. The portfolio manager can buy and sell shares in the fund, and individual clients are none the wiser.

Our approach is different because each client has their own segregated portfolio. The stocks that they own are very similar, but each person's returns are different. They actually have X number of Apple shares, in their own name, bought at Y price, constituting Z percent of their overall account.

What's more, we usually don't take a full discretionary mandate to manage accounts, meaning that we have to get client approval to buy a share, add to a position, or liquidate some.

We think that it's more fun for clients to buy the shares of actual companies, and to enjoy the benefits of actual ownership. Each account is also customised around an individual's risk tolerance and life views. It makes them more likely to stick with their investments in tough times.

Direct ownership of companies is more engaging than simply being a co-investor in a "black box" product. It's illuminating to see which shares are lagging, and which are doing the heavy lifting.

For example, it's fun to chat with family and friends about owning shares of Nvidia, and to mention the price at which they were bought.

Byron's beats

When Javier Milei won the presidency in Argentina, their monthly inflation rate was 25%. Today, it is sitting at 2.7%. Annual inflation is still at 190% but is coming down quickly too, as it was over 290%. The pro-business politician cut federal spending by 32%, brought the number of ministers down to 8 from 18, reduced subsidies and froze public projects. Javier is clearly the GOAT of DOGE (department of government efficiency).

Can you guess what the best-performing global equity ETF is so far this year? Yes, Argentina is leading the pack by a long way, up over 60% in USD.

There are still some things that Milei still has on his task list, like abolishing their ridiculous exchange controls. Argentines are only allowed to send $200 offshore a month for savings. That is madness. Get rid of these controls, let your currency normalise and the funds will flow back.

Before Milei took over, Argentina was in ruins due to insane socialist policies. He still has a long way to go to effect a full economic turnaround. The question is whether voters will give him enough time to finish the job. I am sure this will be a great case study for the textbooks one day. I wonder what the leftists here in South Africa will have to say about this dramatic economic turnaround?

Michael's musings

Last week, Amgen fell 5% after publishing data on a phase 2 study of MariTide, its weight-loss drug. Over a year, patients lost on average 20% of their weight, slightly quicker than competitors. There was a concern that around 50% of patients reported nausea after the first dose, with 20% vomiting. After the first dose, the nausea mostly subsides.

It is worth noting that patients also experience nausea after the first dose with Wegovy (44%) and Zepbound (29%).

Unlike its competitors, which are injected weekly, MariTide is a monthly injection. This is a huge benefit, particularly for people who don't like needles. Amgen is starting a trial to see if quarterly injections are also effective. Importantly, there was no plateau in weight loss among MariTide recipients over the one-year trial.

MariTide still needs to complete phase 3 trials before it is available to the public, expected around 2027. With more drug trials, we will get a better understanding of how the drug works. For now, it looks like it will be competitive in a fast-growing industry.

Bright's banter

Rocket Lab, founded by self-taught New Zealander Peter Beck, is quickly emerging as a rival to SpaceX, proving its ability to deliver cost-effective and reliable space launches. They completed two within 24 hours from two different hemispheres, a first for the space industry.

The company's first used its HASTE suborbital rocket and took place in Virginia. The mission, commissioned by the US Department of Defense, remained confidential regarding its payload specifics.

Just under 22 hours later, Rocket Lab launched its Electron rocket from New Zealand, successfully placing five Kineis satellites into orbit. These satellites are part of a constellation that provides near real-time location and data services globally.

These were Rocket Lab's 13th and 14th missions of 2024 and their 56th overall. The company's stock, already up 414% this year, gained another 16% following the achievement and news of a $23.9 million federal grant to upgrade its New Mexico facility.

Rocket Lab is positioning itself as a reliable "Space UPS" and they plan to challenge SpaceX's Falcon 9 with a larger Neutron rocket set for customer launches in 2026.

Signing off

Asian markets started the week on a positive note, following record highs on Wall Street. The dollar regained ground against the Japanese Yen ahead of key US interest rate updates.

Chinese stocks got an extra boost from strong manufacturing data, with official and private surveys showing solid growth. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Topix, and China's CSI 300 gained, but India's Nifty50 slipped.

In local company news, Naspers expects core headline earnings to jump by 99% to 106%, driven by strong e-commerce growth and improved profitability, with Tencent finally seeing a slow turnaround. Elsewhere, MTN has extended CEO Ralph Mupita's contract by five years.

US equity futures modestly lower in early pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.15 to the US Dollar.

It's almost the festive season now, have a good week.