Betting elect

17 October , 09:20 am

Market scorecard

US markets edged higher yesterday, with small-cap stocks outperforming as the Russell 2000 reached its highest point in nearly three years. Most of the big tech "Magnificent 7" stocks were steady, although Nvidia bounced back 3.1% after the previous day's ASML-induced selloff. Financial stocks extended their rally, with strong gains from Visa (+3.0%), Citigroup (+2.6%), and Mastercard (+1.4%).

In company news, Morgan Stanley saw a 6.5% jump in its stock price after reporting better-than-expected revenue, thanks to a strong 32% profit increase for the third quarter. Elsewhere, Qualcomm is expected to hold off on making any moves toward a potential acquisition of Intel until after the US presidential election in November. Both Intel and Qualcomm fell 1.5% on the news.

Izolo, the JSE All-share was up 0.52%, the S&P 500 rose 0.47%, and the Nasdaq was 0.28% higher.

Our 10c worth

Byron's beats

Johnson & Johnson is always the first Vestact stock to release earnings for the season. Not exactly the most exciting business but sometimes a bit of boring in a portfolio is a good thing. This quarter saw a solid beat on sales and earnings, but they lowered full-year guidance slightly. That didn't seem to deter the market, the stock ended up 1.5% on a day when most other shares were down.

J&J now has two divisions: Pharma, which makes up 65% of sales and Medtech, which brings in the rest. It is like owning Amgen and Stryker simultaneously.

Blockbuster drugs like Darzalax (cancer), Invega Sustenna (schizophrenia), and Stelara (Crohn's disease) all did very well and were responsible for the solid sales beat. Darzalax alone brought in $3 billion. The medtech division missed estimates slightly but still managed to grow 6% year-on-year.

The share trades at 16 times earnings and a dividend yield of over 3%. It's a steady-as-you-go, defensive business with solid fundamentals. Despite the stock underperforming some of our highfliers, we still think you should hold this one in your portfolio.

One thing, from Paul

Is there anything that weightless drugs can't do? Zepbound will now be used in a trial in the UK to see if it combats unemployment. Eli Lilly will invest £279 million ($364 million) to help tackle Britain's significant health challenges.

The five-year trial in the Manchester area will explore how weight-loss drugs impact "participants' employment status and sick days from work".

It makes sense when you consider that the UK has a stubbornly high rate of economic inactivity, defined as those neither working nor looking for a job.

Almost a third of unemployment claims and NHS visits are attributed to long-term sickness, including pre-existing health conditions, such as obesity, and obesity-linked co-morbidities.

Get slim, get healthy, get back to work.

Michael's musings

In previous US elections, we had to rely on polls to get an idea of who was favourite to win the race. Polls have been known to be wrong, despite the best efforts of the people who run them. Recently, betting on the outcome of the US election has been made legal in the US, which gives extra insight into people's predictions.

At a high level, you would assume that betting odds are probably a better forecast of the election outcome than the polls. After all, people put real money on the line when they place a bet. The weakest point about polls is that they struggle to find enough credible people to interview for their data.

At the moment, the polls and the betting markets show wildly different outcomes. The polls show Harris with a slight lead. However, the betting markets are suggesting that Trump will win in a landslide.

There are a couple of theories for the divergence. One is that Trump supporters are more likely to place bets on the election outcome, which skews the odds. Another theory is that volume is low and a few whales can manipulate trading.

A third theory is dumb money is coming into a very popular market, similar to how amateur gamblers hit the Superbowl and pick their preferred team more than a random regular season NFL match, making odds accuracy more difficult. There may not be enough "smart money" to offset all the "dumb money".

It's a bit like asking a Man City supporter to place a bet on the outcome of a football match. Anything short of a 100% chance of City winning looks like good odds to them.

I'm of the view that the election is too close to call, and it will be won/ lost on the smallest of margins. We will find out in 3 weeks.

Bright's banter

Stephen Ross, owner of the Miami Dolphins, is in advanced talks to sell a 13% stake in his sporting assets, valuing them at $8.1 billion. This deal includes a portion of the NFL's Miami Dolphins, Hard Rock Stadium, the Miami Grand Prix, and the Miami Open tennis tournament.

If all goes according to plan, Ares Management (a private equity firm) would buy a 10% stake, and billionaire Alibaba Chair Joe Tsai, owner of the Brooklyn Nets, would acquire 3%. David Rubenstein of Carlyle said this is one of the best deals he's ever seen in sports.

The potential transaction is noteworthy because it would mark the first time a private equity firm has purchased a stake in an NFL team. Earlier this year, the NFL changed its rules, allowing select private equity firms to buy minority shares in up to six teams, offering owners liquidity while benefiting from the steady rise in valuations.

Ross, who made his fortune in property investing, stands out for owning not just the Dolphins but also their stadium, which is rare in the NFL. Most teams, including the Cowboys and Packers, lease their stadiums from local governments. Ross bought the Dolphins and related assets for $550 million in 2008, and the current valuation highlights how much the value of sports franchises has appreciated over time.

Signing off

Chinese stocks lost their earlier gains after a long-awaited government briefing on property market support fell short of expectations. The CSI 300 Index slipped, reversing a 1.3% rise, while a key index of Chinese property developer stocks dropped over 8%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also saw its gains reduced to less than 1%, as traders were left unimpressed by the lack of new stimulus measures.

In local company news, Growthpoint is looking to sell the 14% stake it will get in NewRiver Reit after agreeing to sell its 69% stake in Capital & Regional. This move is part of the company's plan to simplify its business.

US equity futures edged higher pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R17.65 to the greenback. Today, Netflix will be reporting its quarterly numbers.