Off the rails

27 September, 09:36 am

Market scorecard

US stocks moved higher yesterday, thanks to more firm US jobs data. On top of that, the Chinese government committed to boosting fiscal spending, which is also market-positive. The commies are really rolling out the stimulus bazooka this week. The S&P 500 notched its 42nd record close of the year, and the Nasdaq also finished in positive territory.

In company news, chip designer Super Micro dropped 12.2% after the US Justice Department said it would probe the San Jose, California-based company. Elsewhere, Swedish fast-fashion giant H&M dropped 4.6% following an announcement that it would miss a key profitability target for the year due to rising costs, which impacted its third-quarter earnings as it battles with Shein and Temu.

Izolo, the JSE All-share was up 1.59%, the S&P 500 rose 0.40%, and the Nasdaq was 0.60% higher. Good times!

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

In the 1950s it was believed that forming a new habit took about 21 days. That was based on the work of Maxwell Maltz, a plastic surgeon, but it was popularised after the 1990s by self-help professionals like Zig Ziglar and Tony Robbins.

A new habit is something like exercising every day, avoiding processed carbs, going to bed and waking up early, drinking more water, getting control of your spending and saving, or cultivating gratitude - the good stuff.

Phillippa Lally, a health psychology researcher at the University College London (pictured below) conducted an in-depth study in 2009 and found that forming a positive habit took, on average, 66 days. That's just over two months.

Now, the Atomic Habits guy, James Clear, says you have to be even more patient, because a habit is really just a step towards a new way of being in the world, and that takes two years, not two months.

"The visible progress you're hoping for usually comes slower than you'd like. Even with consistent effort, it can take a long time before progress feels significant. It might be a year of writing and editing before the book really starts to come together. You may need two years of recovery from a major injury before you notice just how far you've come. It may take two years of yoga before you realise how flexible you have become."

Clear: "Take a deep breath, stop worrying about immediate results, and settle into a nice routine."

Byron's beats

The awesome image below is from Brilliant Maps, which shows the railway infrastructure in Africa. It puts into perspective how developed the South African railroad network is. When I drive around the country and see all the trucks clogging up the roads, it really grates me to know that there is a better solution that is ready and waiting.

According to the article, South Africa has nearly 21 000 km of railway, connecting 47% of the country. 7 400 km of that is electrified, although I am sure a lot of that infrastructure has been damaged or stolen.

As with most things in South Africa, it is not that simple. The truck mafia keeps on vandalising the rails and Transnet is a slow-moving dinosaur. We can only hope that a more mobilised government can start plucking at this low-hanging fruit.

Michael's musings

Confidence is one of the best forms of stimulus for an economy. China used to have a thriving start-up and entrepreneurial culture, but government overreach has doused that flame. Confidence is low, so people aren't investing in the future.

A great article in the FT, How China has 'throttled' its private sector, notes how the number of new businesses has collapsed. "In 2018, at the height of VC investment, 51 302 start-ups were founded in China. By 2023, that figure had collapsed to 1 202 and is on track to be even lower this year."

Money was flowing into China from international investors, but those flows have stopped and reversed, leaving gaps that need filling. This week China announced fresh stimulus measures to try to boost their economy. It is a reminder of how quickly things can change.

Bright's banter

Prosus has sold its entire stake in Chinese online travel agency Trip.com for $743 million, marking another exit by an international investor from a Chinese tech firm. Walmart also recently sold its JD.com stake for $3.6 billion.

The Chinese government has been cracking down on what they view as consumer excess, coupled with their complete overreach during Covid has resulted in deflationary pressures and a real estate crisis. Hence the recent stimulus efforts by the Politburo to curb the exodus.

Prosus and Naspers have also been reducing their stake in Tencent and using the money to buy back their own shares. So far, this has been a net positive. Maybe it would be better for the cash to be paid back to shareholders though?

Signing off

Asian markets had a mixed start today. Hong Kong and mainland China extended their strong rally, with both indexes gaining over 3.7%. This has been their best week since the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea took a breather, pulling back slightly.

In local company news, Naspers shares surged 6.7% yesterday, hitting a record high after five straight days of gains. The rise was due to Tencent, Naspers' largest holding, climbing 15% over the past week.

US equity futures are flat pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R17.23 to the US Dollar.

Good luck to the Springboks in Mbombela tomorrow. That game should be a cracker.

Enjoy the weekend.