Boo EU

12 September, 09:34 am

Market scorecard

US markets opened on the back foot yesterday, before rebounding strongly thanks to encouraging inflation data. It was the first time since October 2022 that major indices erased an intraday loss of at least 1.5%. As usual the technology sector was the lead steer, chipmakers Nvidia and Arm surged 8.2% and 10.3%, respectively.

In company news, after 155 years, Campbell Soup Company is rebranding by dropping "Soup" from its corporate name to become "The Campbell's Company" because they also sell lots of snacks. Elsewhere, OpenAI is reportedly in discussions to raise $6.5 billion from investors, which could value the company at $150 billion. Finally, First Solar rose 15.2% as renewable energy companies rallied following the US presidential debate last night.

At the end of it all, the JSE All-share closed down 1.00%, the S&P 500 rose 1.07%, and the Nasdaq stormed 2.17% higher.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

It's widely noted that the US innovates, China imitates and Europe regulates.

A recent study led by former Italian prime minister and former ECB head Mario Draghi proposed that if the EU wants to get its economy growing faster, it should stop focusing on regulating technology and instead build cutting-edge tech itself.

His report suggests that the EU should spend EUR 800 billion to promote mergers and scale-ups and create a European innovation agency.

But only a day later, EU competition and digital boss Margrethe Vestager was making a triumphant speech, celebrating courtroom wins against Apple and Google, slapping them with multibillion-dollar fines for falling foul of tax and competition law. How annoying!

Vestager and her colleagues have dreamed up many laws that hobble innovative companies, including the Digital Markets Act, the General Data Protection Regulation, and the EU Artificial Intelligence Act. She's very proud of herself, but this is exactly the reason that tech startups get launched elsewhere.

For these and other reasons, we usually avoid investing in Europe. We make an exception for a few luxury goods companies that operate globally.

Byron's beats

I enjoy articles that explore history, providing context to reflect upon our modern lives. This Ben Evans essay titled Asking the wrong questions does just that and it is a great read.

He talks about a long-range forecasting study done in 1964 and then compares it to what has actually transpired today. I must say, I was quite impressed with how accurate some of the predictions were.

Evans says, "To me the interesting thing is how often the order is wrong. What we now know to be the hard problems were going to be solved decades before what we now know were the easy ones."

For example, many expected we'd have flying cars and humanoid household robots by the 1990s. No one expected pocket computers (smartphones) to be so early.

Forecasting is tough, and even when you are right, making the correct investments based on those forecasts poses another challenge. It is still fun to look back at these bold predictions to see if we have managed to exceed expectations.

Michael's musings

I'm sort of looking for a new car. My 12-year-old VW Golf is a bit tight with two car seats in the back. Part of my process is to build a very basic model of how used car prices change based on certain characteristics. For example, motor vehicles depreciate significantly in the first few years, regardless of how much they are driven. I drive less than 10 000 kilometres a year, so buying a new car seems like a waste.

WeBuyCars has a treasure trove of data on all car prices. They should build a program where you could find your ideal car. They could ask things like: How much do you want to spend? How much depreciation a year are you willing to accept? What fuel efficiency do you want? What 0-100 time is required? From your answers to questions like these, they could search through their database to find your perfect deal.

I'm unlikely to upgrade my car soon though. Every time I get close to buying something, I think to myself, would I rather expense R100k on the depreciation of a car next year, or go on an international holiday? I think the holiday is better value for money.

Bright's banter

Chinese appliance giant Midea Group is gearing up for a major IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise up to $3.46 billion. If successful, it could make it the city's largest fundraising deal of the year.

The Foshan-based company, founded in 1968, is the world's largest appliance maker and owns brands like Midea, Colmo, and Little Swan - a well-recognised washing machine brand. Additionally, Midea acquired Toshiba's home appliance business in 2016, expanding its product range with Japanese-engineered solutions.

The company already trades in Shenzhen, and its Hong Kong IPO has strong backing from cornerstone investors, including BYD and UBS Asset Management, who have committed $1.26 billion, covering over 35% of the offering. The listing is expected to attract more global investors, with proceeds earmarked for R&D, manufacturing improvements, and distribution upgrades.

Hong Kong's IPO market has been sluggish recently due to the weakened Chinese economy and US-China tensions, but Midea's move could help revitalise activity.

Signing off

Asian markets rallied this morning with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index snapping a three-day losing streak and enjoying its biggest daily gain in a month. The weirdly-named Canadian convenience store operator Alimentation Couche-Tard is trying to take over the Japan-based holding company of 7-Eleven.

In local company news, property giant Growthpoint reported a 4.8% increase in revenue, but its distributable income per share fell by 10%. They have sold 19 properties in South Africa for nearly R1.2 billion. The company's stock is up 22% year-to-date, slightly behind the overall property index, which is up 26%.

US equity futures are trending higher in pre-market. The Rand is trading at R17.90 to the greenback.

Have a good Thursday.