US markets had another good day yesterday. Most of the gains came from big tech as the Magnificent Seven rose 1.5% with Oracle (+11.4%), Tesla (+4.6%), and Amazon (+2.4%) leading the charge. The energy sector was the worst performer, down 2% after OPEC trimmed its oil demand forecast. The price of that stinky commodity is below $70 a barrel for the first time since 2021.
In company news, JPMorgan's shares dropped 5.2% after an executive at the bank warned that investors might be underestimating their upcoming expenses while overestimating their interest income, as rates come down. Elsewhere, Bank of America announced that its investment-banking results are likely to fall short of expectations. The biggest loser in the S&P 500 was Hewlett Packard (-8.5%), as it scratched around to fund its acquisition of Juniper Networks.
At the close, the JSE All-share was up 0.25%, the S&P 500 rose 0.45% and the Nasdaq was 0.84% higher. That's more like it.
Many investors are afraid of stocks that have done well, based on the theory of "what goes up must come down". Actually, that was Isaac Newton's line, about gravity, published in 1687, it has nothing to do with the stock market. In reality, the market keeps going up, and up some more, over time
Some companies do start out small, grow, become market leaders, attract investors, dominate their sector, then decline as their business model becomes obsolete or the markets they serve become overtraded and commoditised. From 1602 to 1796 the Dutch East India Company dominated trade in spices - almost 200 years is good going. That's not a hot area of global commerce anymore. Tobacco companies and coal companies are on their way out now.
Over the last two decades, the biggest tech companies have become larger and larger, and more and more profitable. They show no signs of slowing down. That's why we own them in our recommended portfolios.
Another reason for the dominance and resilience of big tech stocks is index funds. Many savers these days just buy S&P 500 trackers with new money, so there is always a bid for the index's main constituents. Even active fund managers in global markets are compelled to own them, in order to avoid underperforming their benchmarks. Market leaders can stay on top for a very long time. Don't be in a hurry to proclaim that they are too big to grow.
This is part 2 of my comments about my recent visit to the headquarters of Meta, where I discuss the conversations I had about the business. Of course, everyone is extremely excited about AI. When you spend time with those who really understand how it works, you sense that they are in absolute awe of its potential.
Meta insiders believe that Llama is the best open-source, large-language model AI system available. I couldn't believe my ears when I was told that Llama has already been downloaded 300 million times, by companies looking to create their own AI applications. I asked how they would make money from offering a free product. At this stage they are still working that out, but profit share agreements from the big cloud-hosting providers is an option.
I asked about Nvidia's role in Meta's in-house data centres. Meta do all their own hosting but are not interested in providing any cloud services to third parties. They would much rather focus on perfecting AI applications that run in conjunction with their social media sites. They are a huge client of Nvidia's but are exploring other options because of high-end chip supply constraints. Whether they will find those alternatives remains to be seen.
I was shown a beta demonstration of the WhatsApp AI tool. When a picture of one of the office art pieces was sent to Meta AI, it explained what the art was about in great detail, which was very impressive. The future is bright for this business, Llama 4 is around the corner which is apparently incredible. Meta's social media sites are robust and growing, and benefiting directly from the increased advertising efficiencies of AI.
I walked away feeling very glad we all own Meta shares.
Everyone has a different idea of what they want to do in their later years. Some want to make a ton of cash early, then spend the rest of their days sipping cocktails and playing golf. For most, retiring at 65 sounds like a good idea. Others plan to work till they are put in a coffin.
Bill Gates was recently on CNBC, where he said "retirement sounds awful". He added, "my friend Warren Buffett still comes into the office six days a week. So, I hope my health allows me to be like Warren."
I don't see myself ever fully retiring, health permitting, but I'm unlikely to be working six days a week like Buffett when I'm 94 years old.
Bill Gates has some very interesting projects to keep him focused and motivated. He works as a technical advisor to Microsoft and devotes most of his time to his foundation. "We haven't gotten rid of polio, we haven't got rid of malaria," he said. "I'm very, very committed to those things."
Sounds good! Society is better off having rich and talented people continuing to work, solving social problems.
Larry Ellison's fortune soared on Tuesday as shares of Oracle hit a record high, propelling him to third place on Forbes' billionaires list. His net worth surged by $18 billion, climbing to $192 billion and surpassing both Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg and Europe's richest man, Bernard Arnault of LVMH.
At age 80, Ellison now ranks just behind Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos as the world's wealthiest. Oracle stock spiked 11.4% to $155.90 per share, breaking its previous record. This came after Oracle's strong quarterly earnings report, which comfortably beat expectations on revenue and profit.
Oracle also sealed a new partnership with Amazon Web Services, allowing AWS customers to access Oracle AI applications. This deal completes Oracle's partnerships with major cloud players, including Google and Microsoft.
Oracle's revenue jumped 8%, with cloud services generating $10.52 billion, up 10% year-on-year. Cloud infrastructure revenue surged 45%, further boosting investor confidence. Ellison also hinted at the company's ambitious plans for data centres, including one powered by modular nuclear reactors, as Oracle expands its cloud infrastructure globally.
Oracle is one of the few tech companies that has managed to stay relevant since its founding in 1977. Microsoft, Apple, and Dell are also of that generation, but the other tech giants were founded in the late 1990s or 2000s.
Biologists keep finding new bee species. Fresh pollinators identified in the Pacific Northwest - Here a bee, there a bee, everywhere a wild bee.
Tech companies like green initiatives. They have very large profit margins so they can afford to be creative - Netflix aims to cut emissions in half by 2030.
Asian markets slipped this morning with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index dropping for a third day in a row. Benchmarks in Japan and Hong Kong led the declines. In Beijing, there is talk of raising the retirement age for white-collar workers. It's currently 60 for men and between 50 and 55 for women.
In local company news, AngloGold Ashanti has made a $2.5 billion (R45 billion) stock and cash offer to acquire Centamin, the company behind Egypt's largest gold mine. This feels like another gold market top signal, these bosses always choose the wrong time to do these expensive deals.
US equity futures are down marginally pre-market. The debate between Harris and Trump was rather entertaining. What did you think? Let us know.
Here in sunny South Africa, one US Dollar will cost you R17.92 Randelas.
Keep well.