Global branded goods companies have had a tough five years, and the main reason is the absence of demand from China. This has affected US companies with high ambitions in that country, like Nike, Apple and Starbucks.

The Chinese government made an absolute hash of the Covid pandemic, with the most severe lockdowns imaginable. Consumers reacted by battening down the hatches, saving more and consuming less. They traded down to cheaper, home-grown brands. Retail sales numbers have been dire, missing expectations almost every month.

The Chinese economy in 2024 is about 5% smaller than the IMF predicted in 2019. Property developers are in trouble, and manufacturers are trying to dump goods abroad because there is no one to buy them at home. Two prominent examples are electric vehicles and solar panels.

Western experts suggest the infrastructure and export-led growth model in China has run its course. They say the Communist Party needs to get over itself and crank up consumer demand. For example, fiscal transfers from the state to lower-income households would be a good idea. However, Xi Jinping remains opposed on ideological grounds - he thinks that American-style consumption is "depraved".

We will wait to see how this turns out. Unfortunately, Xi Jinping is only 71 years old. He plans to stay in office for his whole life.

According to investment research firm Moby, global liquidity is at an all-time high of $175 trillion. Global liquidity is a measurement of how much money supply is available in each country. In other words, there is $175 trillion of cash or near-cash parked in low-risk investments, that could be looking for a different home.

I mention this because we often see doomsday charts and stats showing that country debt levels are far too high. These charts usually neglect to point out that there are many more people around today, or fail to take into account inflation - $1 today is worth less than $1 ten years ago. Don't forget that debt for one institution is an asset for another. In reality, the global economy has never been bigger and the amount of economic activity has never been higher in nominal terms.

In a lower interest-rate environment, it is perfectly acceptable for countries to have higher debt levels. The global economy and money system expands and contracts as 'economic agents' need or don't need money. All the liquidity sloshing around bodes well for equities, especially as interest rates start to come down.

There are just 70 days to go until the US election. For stocks, it doesn't really matter who wins. The US political set-up has many checks and balances, which generally means the president can't do anything too wild. History shows that stocks gain under blue or red leadership, and actually does slightly better on average under Democratic Party presidents.

Each candidate will spend a mind-blowing amount on their election campaign. The Harris camp has raised over $500 million, with $200 million being raised in July alone! Team Trump has 'only' raised $270 million, but I suspect that gap will close as conservative donors rush to catch up.

A good amount of these campaign funds will be spent on online advertising. Each side will have key groups and regions to target, and online advertising is the best way to reach those people instead of wasting money on broad TV ads. Two companies that we own, Facebook and Google, will have a tailwind of a few hundred million Dollars in this election cycle.

AdvTech reported robust results for the first six months of 2024. Revenue was R4.3 billion, up 9% and operating profit rose 15% to R865 million, driven by a 6% increase in enrolments amid growing demand for private education in South Africa.

Enrolment gains were broad-based, with South African schools up 5%, the rest of Africa up 4%, and the tertiary sector increasing by 6%. AdvTech is expanding its footprint through ongoing renovations and new campus developments, including a new Pinnacle College set to open in 2025.

The group is also enlarging several Rosebank College campuses and seeking regulatory approval for a new university site. The company remains my favourite education operator thanks to its strong brands like Abbotts College, Crawford Schools, Monash SA, and Trinity House.

AdvTech's strong financial performance and strategic expansion plans underline its commitment to its quality private education niche.

It's getting easier to get hold of obesity drugs if you have money. High demand and supply chain issues restricted availability - The Ozempic shortage is over.

A massive diamond was found in Botswana. It's the second biggest stone ever - At 2 492 carats, it's probably worth over $70 million.

Asian markets are a mixed bag this morning. Hong Kong-listed tech stocks softened, including Alibaba (-4.7%) and JD.com (-4.2%), following a 29% plunge in PDD Holdings, owner of Temu, in New York last night after the company indicated its current growth path was unsustainable.

In local company news, Discovery Bank announced that it now has over 1 million clients, this only took them five years. In the first six months of this year, it reported a 31% increase in deposits to R16.67 billion and a 20% rise in advances to R5.75 billion.

US equity futures are in the green pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R17.72 to the greenback.

It is a sunny Tuesday. Enjoy the work day ahead.