Bully beef

29 July , 08:40 am

Market scorecard

US markets rose on Friday, thanks to the release of positive economic data. We remain on track for interest-rate cuts this year, before Christmas, maybe even sooner, we promise. Every sector in the S&P 500 saw gains, with homebuilders reaching a record high. That positive session capped a difficult week.

The Fed's preferred measure of underlying US inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose at a modest pace in June, while spending remained healthy. Somehow, consumer sentiment dropped to an eight-month low. This is a good combination.

In company news, 3M, the maker of Post-it notes, amongst many things, surged 23%, marking its biggest one-day gain since 1980, driven by a bullish outlook. In other news, Bill Ackman's US closed-end fund IPO was postponed. Finally, Weight Watchers fell 12.5% after it got cut from overweight to equal weight by Morgan Stanley based on obesity drugs. At least it lost weight haha.

On Friday, the JSE All-share gained 0.55%, the S&P 500 stepped up by 1.11%, and the Nasdaq trotted 1.03% higher.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

Tech stocks have had a rough two weeks. One of the central beefs of bearish commentators has been that there's too much capex on AI infrastructure. There has been a lot of yapping about how all of the big boys - Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta - are spending tens of billions of US dollars on data centres, with no visibility on when AI services will make them real money.

My question to anyone second-guessing this capital outlay is this: who are you going to trust on this issue? A bunch of numpty pundits, nervous venture capitalists, and annoying podcasters, or Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, Andy Jassy and Mark Zuckerberg? Who do you think knows the market potential better? Who knows best what they need to win?

Here's Zuckerberg: "I'd much rather over-invest and play for that outcome than save money by developing more slowly. The downside of being behind is that you'll be out of position for the most important technology over the next 10-15 years."

Byron's beats

I still get frustrated when I recall Nigeria's ridiculous $5.2 billion fine imposed on MTN. That was in 2016 for allowing mobile subscribers to remain on their network who hadn't submitted an ID and proof of residence. The quantum of the fine was absolutely ludicrous and was a clear attempt to fill government coffers from a soft target. The fine was eventually reduced to $1.6 billion which was still absurd.

I had to chuckle then when I saw Nigeria attempt to fine Meta $220 million under their new data protection laws. Unlike MTN, Meta is not overly reliant on Nigeria and has hardly any physical infrastructure in the country.

I have no doubt that Meta will never pay that fine. But what was even more satisfying to see was their immediate reaction to shut down 63 000 Nigerian Instagram accounts that were involved in sextortion scams. Well done Zuck and team!

Michael's musings

Pets are becoming a bigger part of our lives. Younger generations view their animals as part of the family and are willing to spend lots of money on them. In a recent survey of 1 000 US-based pet owners, 34% said that they would reject a higher-paying job in favour of spending more time with their animals.

The survey found that 57% said that they consider their pets when doing long-term financial planning. Gone are the days when your dog would only see a vet once or twice in its lifetime.

As part of our healthcare investment theme, we have been exploring the idea of investing in Zoetis, the world's largest producer of medicine and vaccinations for pets and livestock. The stock hasn't done much recently, it is slightly down over the last year and its dividend yield is a pedestrian 1%, unlike some of our other healthcare stocks.

We will continue to explore new and emerging investable themes.

Bright's banter

LVMH reported a 14% drop in net profit for the first half of the year, affected by the continued drop in luxury spending in China. Revenues for the second quarter rose 1.4% to EUR21 billion, indicating a slowdown from the first quarter's 3% increase.

The fashion and leather goods division, a key segment, saw sales of EUR10.3 billion, up 1% on a like-for-like basis. The division was hit by significant negative exchange rate impacts, with profit from recurring operations falling 6%. However, operating margins remained high for top brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior.

Bernard Arnault, LVMH's chairman and CEO, highlighted the group's resilience, even when facing economic and geopolitical uncertainties. He expressed confidence in the second half of the year, relying on the agility and talent of LVMH's teams to maintain its leadership in luxury goods.

Segment performance varied, with organic sales of wines and spirits down 5% and watches and jewellery down 4%. Conversely, perfumes and cosmetics rose 4%, and selective retailing increased 5%. Diversification helps a lot in tough times.

LVMH's share price has dropped over 20% from its peak in March due to inflation impacting global demand for luxury items. That's probably a buying opportunity for patient long-term investors. Traffic in Chinese luxury malls is down slightly year-to-date, with double-digit declines in luxury sales as consumers clutch onto their Dior purses.

This trend mirrors the challenges faced by other luxury brands. Richemont reported a 1% sales rise in the April-to-June period, weighed down by a 27% decline in China, Hong Kong, and Macao. Burberry saw a 20% decline in retail revenue and warned of an operating loss for the first half, while Swatch Group's revenue fell 10.7% in organic terms, impacted by the lack of Chinese tourists in Southeast Asia.

Signing off

Asian markets are looking good this morning, rising the most in more than two weeks. Equity benchmarks rallied in Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan but ebbed in mainland China.

In local company news, Bowler Metcalf jumped 11.2% after announcing that headline earnings per share are expected to increase between 42.5% and 62.5%, driven by higher volumes in the packaging segment. Meanwhile, Sanlam partnered with Allianz in Ghana to form a R35 billion financial services giant, focusing primarily on life insurance and other non-banking services.

US equity futures are marching higher in pre-market trade. The Rand is at R18.27 to the US Dollar.

This week the focus will be on earnings from Apple, Amazon, AMD, Arm Holdings, Mastercard, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Stryker.

Try squeeze in some Olympic watching today, the weekend's action was very exciting. Good luck to Tatjana Smith at the 100m breaststroke final tonight.

Have a good week.