Large to yuuuge

28 June , 09:24 am

Market scorecard

US markets moved slightly higher yesterday, driven by gains in technology companies. Palo Alto Networks (+4.8%), Salesforce (+4.0%), Adobe (+3.4%), Amazon (+2.2%), and Meta (+1.3%) were the standout performers. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the only index that ended meaningfully higher for the day.

In company news, Nike sank 12.4% in late-trade after the apparel giant missed sales estimates, but beat on profit numbers. Oh dear, not good. Elsewhere, Walgreens Boots Alliance tumbled 22% after slashing its guidance. Spice maker McCormick & Co rose 4.3% after the company posted salty earnings results, absolutely crushing estimates.

In summary, the JSE All-share closed down 0.41%, the S&P 500 rose just 0.09%, and the Nasdaq was a solid 0.30% higher.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

What is your destiny? What will you be remembered for? What will your family, colleagues and friends say at your funeral? A lot of self-help books are written to help people answer these questions.

In truth, it's hard to produce a definitive "destiny document". It also sounds a little pompous. Instead, just figure out what you should do in the next 3 years, and then break that down further into concrete steps that you commit to taking before Christmas. Put it on an actual task list.

The goal of this process is to make changes to your current daily routine. You may be way off track, spending lots of time on the wrong things. As I read recently, "Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it."

Byron's beats

We are very strict about only investing in large businesses. Our clients have worked hard to build up their nest eggs, and we shouldn't be speculating with their life savings. In our US portfolios, CrowdStrike has the smallest market cap with $92 billion. For perspective, Naspers has a market cap of R640 billion, which is only $35 billion. CrowdStrike would be the biggest listed company on the JSE by far, at R1.65 trillion.

You might think that this rule restricts us from picking stocks that could deliver exceptional returns, but that notion is wrong. We have found that the best way to make money in the US market is to find companies that are already large but have the potential to become huge. Buying Apple at a value of $500 billion and holding it while it grows to 3 trillion is a lot easier, and less risky, than finding an obscure biotech stock that could grow from $5 billion to $30 billion.

Nvidia is an exceptional example, we started buying the share when it had a market cap of around $50 billion in 2016. It recently just crested $3 trillion.

Large companies attract the best talent, have access to cheap finance, are run by established managers and usually have big competitive moats. We are more than happy to ride stocks from large to huge and leave the small-cap stock picking to someone else.

Michael's musings

In 2022 Wells Fargo joined forces with Bilt Technologies, a fintech startup, which has a product that allowes people to pay their rent with a credit card. As you can imagine, landlords generally don't accept credit cards for payment because they don't want to be lumped with 3% swipe fees. Bilt found a way for tenants to pay rent using their credit cards, earning loyalty points along the way, and for landlords to still receive 100% of their money.

The model results in Wells Fargo sucking up all the costs associated with processing the credit card rental payments, in the hope that customers don't settle their credit card statements at month end, allowing the bank to charge interest on outstanding balances. In theory, what Wells Fargo loses on processing free credit card rental payments, they should more than make back on the interest income.

According to the Wall Street Journal, that is not the case; Wells Fargo is losing as much as $10 million every month.

I like the description of how the back-end mechanics work. "When consumers charge rent to their cards, a third-party company sends a cheque for that amount to the person or entity the cardholder says is the landlord."

Bilt is a $3.2 billion company. In our AI-driven, digital world, even sending a cheque via the post can be considered an innovation. Simply amazing.

Bright's banter

Tencent's new mobile game, Dungeon & Fighter, has outperformed all expectations, doubling the sales of its previous bestseller, Honor of Kings, within just a month.

Produced by Nexon, the game earned $270 million on Apple devices (iOS) in the first 30 days after its launch on 21 May, according to Sensor Tower. Tencent's aggressive marketing strategy included inserting ads into WeChat conversations containing the word "warrior."

This is great news for Naspers/Prosus shareholders. Now we wait for Chinese regulators to approve more games for Tencent, I have a feeling they're sitting on more blockbusters!

Signing off

Asian markets are mostly higher this morning with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index ending a three-day losing streak. Benchmarks in India, Hong Kong, mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan saw gains. Japans broader Topix index just hit a 34-year high as tech companies rallied in the country.

In local company news, FirstRand has increased a provision for problems arising from the fight between its MotoNovo unit and the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). The wider industry probe is examining potential consumer abuses in the vehicle finance sector. Investec also set aside GBP 30 million in provisions for the same issue last month.

US futures are in the green pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.40 to the US Dollar, as concerns grow about a standoff between the ANC and the DA around cabinet positions.

Today, the US is set to release its PCE inflation numbers, with forecasters predicting a 2.6% figure, down from last month's 2.8%.

Have a relaxing weekend. Good luck to the Proteas!