US markets closed lower yesterday, continuing their recent pullback. Semiconductor stocks took another hit, with Broadcom down 4.0%, and Nvidia slumping 6.7%. Ouch, you have to be able to take the good with the bad. At least drug stocks held steady, with Amgen (+3.2%), Eli Lilly (+0.7%) and J&J (+0.3%) up. That is why we diversify. The overall market wasn't too bad, as nine out of the eleven S&P 500 sectors ended in the green.
In company news, Apple and Meta closed marginally higher after reports emerged about talks to integrate Meta's generative AI model into Apple's AI system for iPhones, potentially giving Siri a new personality. The top performer in the S&P 500 was fertiliser maker Mosaic Co. The biggest decliner was ResMed (-11.5%), the maker of CPAP machines to treat obstructive sleep apnoea, on the news that Eli Lilly's Zepbound helped treat the condition.
Izolo, the JSE All-share closed up 0.62%, but the S&P 500 retreated by 0.31%, and the Nasdaq stumbled, falling 1.1%.
Global investors are starting to worry about the outcomes of elections in the USA (November), the UK (July) and France (June and July). Here at home, investors on the JSE are anxiously awaiting news of the composition of the cabinet.
In general, it's best to keep your personal political preferences in check, and not let it affect your investing too much.
Larry Swedroe is a Wall Street veteran, and author of books including "What Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Know" way back in 2001. That's him below, with the interesting hairstyle.
In a recent interview, he noted that research (in the US) has shown that stock market investors do better when their preferred politicians are in power, because they do less to their portfolios.
If you hate the politicians in charge, you are more likely to panic and go to cash in a recession, since you know in your bones that the country is run by "idiots".
In times of trouble, such as 9-11, the global financial crisis, or Covid, supporters of the party and/or the President in power tended to trust that "their team" would figure out what to do, and stay fully invested. That resulted in better returns, as shareholders rode the rebound.
I really enjoyed this piece by Morgan Housel from the end of May titled Lazy Work, Good Work. He writes about how important it is to step away from the hustle and bustle sometimes, to think. Humans think of long walks on the beach, a holiday or even lying down on the couch as leisure time. In other words, not work. But that is often when the best ideas are created.
The article looks at John D Rockefeller, Albert Einstein, Mozart, and Bill Gates as good examples of absolute legends in their fields who liked to step away from work and take time off to think deeply.
Here is Morgan on the topic. "Everyone eventually has to sit down and produce their work, and are held to goals and quotas. But as the economy shifts to knowledge work, we should respect that what actually produces good work can at first look lazy."
I agree, don't feel bad to take some time to just think.
According to Bloomberg, travel was 10.4% of global GDP in 2019, and is growing quickly. The travel industry is expected to grow by 50% between 2019 and 2033, going from $10 trillion to $15.5 trillion. That growth number sounds low to me based on the recent travel numbers recorded by companies like Visa, Booking.com and AirBnB. Another data point is that Lisbon earned 20% more in tax revenue over the last year thanks to surging numbers of tourists.
Tourism can be a blessing and a curse. Some very popular destinations like Venice have introduced 'anti-tourism' taxes, to try to reduce the number of visitors. Last week, Barcelona announced that the licenses of all short-term rental apartments in the city will be revoked. If you want to visit, you will need to book into a hotel. New York already has a law like this in place. The theory is that banning short-term rentals will help to keep a cap on property prices. I have my doubts, but time will tell.
I don't see the booming travel industry slowing down anytime soon - young people like to see new places. Hybrid working is a huge boost for tourism too. As long as there is a stable internet connection, people are able to work and travel at the same time. Something that was frowned upon before the Covid pandemic.
South Africa has a massive opportunity in tourism. Many of the unemployed people in South Africa are unskilled, meaning we will struggle to go head to head with other countries focusing on high-tech industries. More tourism will absorb entry-level workers and play to our strengths - South Africa is warm when the northern hemisphere is cold, we have a vast offering of destinations, things are comparatively cheap and our people are friendly.
I've written a few times about Shein's plans to list in London and now it's finally happening. The fashion company filed its IPO application confidentially with the UK's Financial Conduct Authority earlier this month and also submitted paperwork with Chinese regulators who are not expected to block the deal.
Founded in Nanjing, China, in 2012, Shein is known for its ultra-cheap, trendy clothing and was valued at $66 billion in a fundraising round in May 2023. It moved its headquarters to Singapore and diversified its supply chain to lessen its China ties.
Shein faced issues with the SEC in the US, which demanded more disclosure of its labour practices, leading the company to consider a listing in London, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
Shein, which doesn't operate in China but sells in over 150 countries, uses a small-batch manufacturing model to keep costs low. However, it's been scrutinised for potential forced labour in its supply chain, especially concerning cotton from China's Xinjiang region.
In response, Shein is focusing on compliance, spending $50 million on a project to follow the rules applicable in different countries. Listing in London is part of Shein's effort to improve transparency and avoid US-China tensions and regulatory battles.
Live sport is big business. Golf is currently going through a makeover to make it more interesting to a new generation of fans - Tiger Woods and McIlroy backed TMRW Sports is valued at $500 million.
People are trying to remove carbon from the atmosphere. This process is still in its infancy, and greenhouse gas emissions remain dangerously high - What is the opposite of oil drilling?
Asian markets are mostly in the green this morning. Benchmarks rose in India, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea, but fell in mainland China.
In local company news, Naspers shares closed up 2.7% on the JSE after the tech giant reported an 8% revenue increase to $6.4 billion, thanks to strong performances in OLX and iFood. Headline earnings from continuing operations rose from $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. Elsewhere, Invicta reported a 4% drop in headline earnings per share for the full year, despite a 7% increase in revenue, which reached R8.3 billion.
The Proteas have made it to the T20 World Cup Cricket semi-final, against Afghanistan, to be played on Thursday morning at 2:30 am. Will you be up to watch?
US futures are in the red pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.10 to the US Dollar.
Enjoy the day, we have passed the solstice, its is now downhill to summer.