Artful dodger

07 June , 09:20 am

Market scorecard

US markets went sideways last night, hovering close to their recent record highs. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite experienced tiny declines, with standout performances from companies like Lululemon (+4.8%), Uber (+4.7%), JM Smucker (+4.6%), Salesforce (+2.6%), and Amazon (+2.1%) offsetting declines elsewhere.

In company news, Instacart shares surged 9.1% after announcing a $500 million share buyback, its third since listing, bringing the total to over 10% of its outstanding stock. Meanwhile, Lyft closed up 1% after the ride-hailing company reported a positive outlook for gross bookings and margin expansion. Lastly, the bottom dropped out of Victoria's Secret (down 6.4%).

Izolo, the JSE All-share closed up 0.38%, the S&P 500 fell a tiny 0.02%, and the Nasdaq was 0.09% lower.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

According to Erik Hoel, making a living as an artist is as rare as being a billionaire. Artists include painters, photographers, sculptors, actors, novelists and musicians. There are colleges, universities and specialist training camps for these careers, that sell parents and their offspring dreams of stardom.

Hoel: "There is an incredibly steep, punishingly steep, impossibly steep, beyond-Pareto-distribution-steep curve wherein only a vanishingly small fraction of people make a living via their artistic efforts alone. This is different than almost any other field or career, where you can make a living without reaching the absolute peak of human accomplishment and accolade."

What's the point? Young people need to be realistic. Forget about becoming the next JK Rowling, Adam Sandler or Taylor Swift. Rather, start a small business in your 20s, in a part of the economy that is well-established, and aim for your first billion by the time you are 50.

Byron's beats

Yesterday marked the 80-year anniversary of D-Day. On June 6 1944, more than 150 000 Allied soldiers invaded France by sea and air, to drive out the Nazi German forces. The invasion marked the beginning of the end of the most devastating conflict in human history.

80 years is not that long ago, we certainly have come a long way. Despite a few pockets of conflict, the world is mostly at peace and focused on progress.

Technology is booming, electric cars are driving themselves, computer nerds are signing women's breasts like rockstars, and people have more leisure time than ever before. Youngsters are travelling the world, connected and creative. Humans are living much longer, healthier lives. You don't even need to diet anymore.

I am a 37-year-old male and have never gone to war. Looking back at history, that's the exception, not the norm. We should be grateful for the era we live in. Don't let it go to waste.

Michael's musings

The era of interest rate cuts has finally arrived. On Wednesday, Canada's central bank became the first G7 nation to lower rates. The European Central Bank (ECB), followed with a cut of their own yesterday.

The central bank that really matters to the global economy, the US Federal Reserve, is still only forecast to cut rates in September. The US economy has been stronger than both Canada and the Eurozone, and US inflation seems more stubborn. In short, there is no need for the Fed to cut rates soon.

Next Wednesday, there is a US Fed meeting and the release of CPI data. It is unlikely that there will be a rate cut then, but we might see Fed officials start to open the door on an end of July interest rate change, instead of September.

Here at home, we may have to wait a few more months until the SARB cuts rates. The outcome of coalition talks will have some bearing on the SARB's decision. If things go well, and the Rand gets stronger, that will help slow inflation, bringing forward interest rate cuts. Obviously, the opposite is true if coalition talks break down and economic populism rears its ugly head.

Notably, the global economy survived this round of rate hikes without going into a recession. Well done everybody.

Bright's banter

The NBA is negotiating new TV deals with NBC, ESPN, and Amazon, worth $76 billion over 11 years, set to start after the 2024-2025 season. Warner Bros. Discovery, struggling with $40 billion in debt, and Disney, facing stock issues, are hesitant to pay the high price needed to be at the negotiating table.

However, NBC is close to paying $2.5 billion annually to air 100 games, while Amazon's $1.8 billion-a-year deal includes regular-season and playoff games, an in-season tournament, and "play-in" games.

Disney will keep the NBA Finals, paying $2.6 billion a year, up from $1.5 billion, with ESPN streaming games starting in 2025. Warner Bros. Discovery can still match offers if they want. Approval from team owners is pending, with an announcement expected in weeks.

I wish more South African sports associations were this business savvy, and that local advertisers had more money. Players, coaches, and other individuals invested in sports would be enjoying more fruits of their labour.

Signing off

Asian markets experienced a spotty performance this morning. Benchmarks rose in India and South Korea but declined in Hong Kong, Japan, and mainland China. Notably, China's exports surged more than expected in May, improving the growth outlook for the world's second-biggest economy.

Locally, Gemfields had a positive update from its gold exploration efforts in Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique. There are 103 000 ounces of gold just 80 metres under the surface, with an average grade of more than 2 grams per tonne.

US equity futures are marginally higher at this time. The Rand is trading at around R18.93 to the US Dollar.

Today, the US nonfarm payroll data is expected to reveal that 180 000 jobs were added in May, with the unemployment rate remaining steady.

The first sitting of our new parliament will happen next week, and we will know what sort of coalition will govern the country for the next five years. The ANC seems to think it can still run the show, with its 40% support. Wishful thinking?

Have a good weekend. If you are running the Comrades Marathon, congratulations in advance!