Coin toss investments

16 May , 09:23 am

Market scorecard

Wednesday saw another strong performance from US markets, with all three major indices closing at record highs. This followed a CPI report indicating a slight easing of inflation in April, suggesting that price pressures might be stabilising. Leading the gains in the S&P 500 were tech sector giants such as AMD (+4.3%), CrowdStrike (+4.1%), Nvidia (+3.6%), and biotech giant Eli Lilly (+3%).

In company news, Cisco surged 5% in late trading after reporting better-than-expected earnings and providing upbeat guidance. Netflix revealed that its monthly active users for its ad-supported subscription plan skyrocketed to 40 million from just 5 million a year ago. Lastly, Boeing may face criminal prosecution after the US Justice Department found that the company breached a deferred-prosecution agreement related to two fatal crashes five years ago.

At the close, the JSE All-share was up 0.93%, the S&P 500 rose 1.17%, and the Nasdaq was 1.40% higher. Wow, epic moves!

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

Ben Carlson wrote an amusing post that's called Translating Wall Street Jargon. It gives simple explanations of what people really mean when they trot out those well-known and cliched market sayings.

Here are some examples.

This is a bubble. Translation: I'm not invested in that asset that went up a lot.

Sell in May and go away. Translation: My research process relies exclusively on rhyming. I also buy when prices are high.

We're waiting for the dust to settle. Translation: We get fearful when others are fearful.

It's trading at fair value. Translation: I have no idea what this thing is worth so hopefully the market does.

Byron's beats

I enjoy those videos that compare two share price graphs changing over time. This clip compares Intel and Nvidia over the last 10 years. It is particularly fun to watch because we have been on that journey with Nvidia the whole way, and it's been one helluva ride.

The video gives explanations for the major share price surges and dips. I didn't realise how drastic the fall of 2022 was. Well done if you held through that period, you deserve the good returns.

The moves in Nvidia's share price over the last 16 months, since the start of 2023, have been phenomenal. The best thing about the run is that it's backed up by massive earnings growth. Those are the kind of rallies we like to see.

Michael's musings

The Qatar Economic Forum (QEF) is currently happening Doha. Bloomberg is one of the organisers, so they have been reporting on it this week. In truth, I had to google 'what is QEF'. Anyway, it is a big conference, with over 50 nations represented and some very heavy hitters attending.

One prominent speaker is Nir Bar Dea, CEO of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund with assets under management of around $100 billion. He made the following point about how hard it is to accurately forecast. "We have 400 [smart and very well paid] people spending day in and day out mapping cause and effect linkages in the world and they still get 40% of their calls wrong."

If Bridgewater struggles to make its forecasts more accurate than a coin toss, what hope do the rest of us have? The short answer is that it is impossible to know what will happen in the future.

Thankfully, to make money in investing, you don't have to forecast every scenario. If you base your investments on very large, slow-moving themes, you are much more likely to do well. That's our approach at Vestact - position yourself to take advantage of long-term trends and then ignore the short-term noise.

Bright's banter

Burberry's latest financials reveal a tough year so far, with pre-tax profits dropping by 40% to GBP 383 million, and revenues dipping 4% to GBP 2.9 billion.

CEO Jonathan Akeroyd acknowledges the challenges, emphasising progress in refocusing the brand. However, a wider slowdown in luxury demand has hit sales in key markets like Asia and the US, where like-for-like sales fell by 12% in the fourth quarter.

In China, yearly sales rose by 2%, however, they plummeted by 19% in the last quarter. Despite currency headwinds, Burberry remains committed to its turnaround strategy, aiming for GBP 5 billion in sales. Burberry's struggles reflect broader softness in the luxury sector, echoing similar issues faced by competitors like Kering.

Linkfest, lap it up

Take a look at the face of a 75 000-year-old female. In a documentary called "Secrets of the Neanderthals," all is revealed - This is not a homo sapien.

The space race is heating up again. Countries are reprioritising the strategic value of getting to the moon, and beyond - China launches an uncrewed lunar mission.

Signing off

Asian markets are mostly higher this morning. Benchmarks slipped slightly in India and Japan but rose decisively in Hong Kong, mainland China, and South Korea. Tencent is up 4.2% as markets reopened after a holiday in Hong Kong, this should be good news for our holders of Naspers/Prosus.

Locally, the CEO of Qatar Airways revealed plans for the airline to invest in a Southern African carrier soon. US-based United Airlines announced a similar approach earlier this year. Elsewhere, Stats SA noted that iron ore production in South Africa experienced a 6.7% decline in the first quarter of this year. The largest producer in the sector, Kumba, reduced production due to inefficiencies at Transnet.

US equity futures are in the green pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.27 to the US Dollar. Send those Rands offshore today, don't wait for the election outcome.

Deere, Walmart, Baidu, and JD.com will report their earnings before market open, while Applied Materials and Take-Two Interactive will report after hours.

Over and out.