It's almost time for one of the most dismal stock market seasons of all, and I'm not referring to the start of winter in the northern hemisphere. I mean the silly spell in which large Wall Street firms trot out their next-year targets for the S&P 500. Where do you think the market will be by the end of 2026? These forecasts are meaningless, because the future is unknowable, but for some reason the financial media loves them.

I was thinking about this issue after corresponding with a young client, who was eager to learn about how the market works. She said, "there is lots of literature out there which suggests that the market is significantly overvalued and about to crash."

My response to that was, "No, that's not literature. There's a lot of punditry and journalistic waffling (also known as "clickbait") out there, that puts forth the argument for page views. That's the slop that gets dressed up as investment advice."

Other than a few outliers, the serious investment houses all predict that the overall market will continue to go up, returning the long-term market average. Have a look around to see the market forecasts for 2026, coming soon from all the major Wall Street firms. Their S&P 500 targets are mostly just 10% higher than where it ends the year before.

Amazon's logistics arm has become so big that it now services rivals like Walmart and Shein. According to Amazon, it makes sense to expand its offerings, even if they are supporting the competition.

The integration means that third-party sellers can use the same inventory stored at an Amazon fulfilment centre to sell on Walmart's online site. This makes life a lot easier for independent sellers and Amazon still gets a cut, regardless of where a product is sold.

It just seems that whatever Amazon does, they do it incredibly well. The company culture must be very productive. When Amazon started, it outsourced all its logistics; now its logistics arm is servicing rivals.

Well done to the team, we are very pleased shareholders.

Imagine paying R70 000 a month for an average one-bedroom apartment. That is the case if you live in Manhattan, where rents have increased by 22% over the last five years. These high prices are usually a sign of a desirable place to live, coupled with very high-paying jobs in the vicinity.

Have a look at how other places compare - Cities with the most expensive rent in 2025. I'm surprised that Monaco isn't on the list, maybe it's too small.

What stood out to me was that most places have seen increases of around 20-30% in rental prices over the last five years, but Hong Kong has gone backwards and San Francisco is only up 1%. I think that directly relates to a drop in desirability of those cities.

In Hong Kong, the increase of influence from mainland China and the crackdown on democracy, has meant fewer people want to live there. Singapore has benefitted from their demise as a regional financial hub. San Francisco has other problems. When Byron visited last year, he said parts of the city were very unappealing, as there is a growing homelessness problem.

Money doesn't have any political allegiances. It flows to places where it is welcome, and these rental prices tells you a lot about what is going on in those cities.

Passing the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) exam usually takes humans years of grinding and about 1 000 hours of studying. However, new research shows that today's most advanced AI models can easily clear even the most challenging part, Level III.

A team from NYU Stern and wealthtech startup GoodFin tested 23 large language models against mock CFA exams. The top systems, including ChatGPT's o4-mini, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and Claude Opus, all sailed through, acing both the multiple choice and the essay-style portfolio management questions that used to trip AI up.

Just two years ago, researchers thought Level III was safe because it required written analysis and judgment. Clearly not anymore. If AI can digest CFA-style material this quickly, it's not hard to imagine what it could do for portfolio construction, wealth planning, or risk analysis.

I think this tech won't replace a CFA holder, but it's going to transform the speed at which they execute their daily tasks. Humans still have the edge on context and judgement, but the machines are catching up fast.

In the 1970s, the golden age of nuclear energy looked to be coming to an end. Rising costs, regulatory upheaval, and public opposition killed new projects - France pushed forward, building 40 nuclear reactors in a decade.

Morgan Housel is a great financial writer. His blogs and books are easy to read and understand - His new book, The Art of Spending Money, comes out next month.

Asian markets are a mixed bag this morning. On the corporate front, Alibaba said it would boost AI spending beyond its original $50 billion plan, joining global tech rivals in the race for breakthroughs. Its stock was up 8.2% yesterday.

In local company news, Remgro closed 1.1% up on Tuesday after the diversified company hiked its dividend by 30% and also declared a 200c special payout after headline earnings rose 39% to R7.83 billion. The results were helped by a turnaround in its 18.8% stake in Heineken Beverages.

US equity futures are in the green pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R17.31 to the US Dollar.

Have a good day; it's almost the weekend.