Market scorecard
US markets flopped badly last night, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs will probably cause inflation, and maybe a recession, and that interest rate cuts can't save the day. This will be Trump's legacy, unless he changes course.
In company news, Nvidia shares tumbled nearly 7% as it became apparent that the company is a pawn in the ongoing US - China trade war. The company flagged a $5.5 billion hit tied to new US restrictions on sales of the dumbed-down H20 processors that were developed for the Chinese market.
In summary, the JSE All-share was up 0.20%, but the S&P 500 fell 2.24%, and the Nasdaq was 3.07% lower. Oh no.
Our 10c worth
One thing, from Paul
It's been an exhausting few weeks, and we are all looking forward to the 4-day Easter weekend. Here's some "Friday advice", even though it's only Thursday.
Let's start with a question. What kind of childhood did you have, and how has it impacted you as an adult?
Susan Cain writes: "You can often spot someone who had an unconditionally loving childhood and adolescence - someone whose parents were "good enough" in a quiet, steadfast kind of way, - by the way they move through the world. There's a gentleness to their self-regard, an ease they bring to various situations. They don't need to earn their place in a room; they assume it's already there. It's not arrogance, but rather a kind of unshakeable self-love, planted early and watered often. These are people who can tolerate silence, laugh easily, and make eye contact without flinching. Their confidence isn't bravado - it's inheritance."
Were you lucky to have had a secure and loving childhood? Or did you face early difficulties? Were your parents great, or was there lots of fighting going on in your home, followed by a divorce? Did you have two parents, or just one, or none?
How about money? Did your family have enough, or did you experience the trauma of poverty? Did you live in a safe area? Did you have to move home often?
Most people's experience of their youth was a mixed bag, with some good aspects and some bad. We all carry some baggage, and have to do the best we can.
Go easy on yourself, and try to be kind to others.
Michael's musings
The secret to happiness is not comparing yourself to others. If you obsess about people who appear to be better off than you, feelings of inadequacy or envy will appear. Research shows that with the rise of social media, unhappiness has grown as it makes it easy for us to see how our peer group is doing.
If you are reading this newsletter, you are probably better off than 95% of South Africans. We manage money for just over 1 300 people, which gives us a unique insight into their finances. Some seem to live very low-key lives, but add to their Vestact portfolio almost monthly. There are others who seem quite flashy but are constantly drawing money from their portfolio to support cash flow requirements. We also have clients who appear to be very successful, and are also good with money, so they are getting very wealthy.
As the saying goes, don't judge a book by its cover. In many cases, appearances are very different from reality. Run your own race. Have a happy Easter break.
Bright's banter
The US could be waving goodbye to almost $90 billion in economic activity this year as foreign tourism slows and international sentiment turns sour on American goods.
Fresh data from the International Trade Administration shows a nearly 10% drop in international air arrivals in March versus a year ago, a sharp pivot from earlier optimism.
At the start of the year, officials had high hopes, projecting 77 million visitors for 2025, nearly back to pre-Covid highs. Now, that recovery looks shaky, and the broader economic impact could be felt well beyond airport terminals and tourist hotspots.
Linkfest, lap it up
General admission to the Coachella festival costs $649. That's before food, accommodation and transport - 60% of Coachella attendees are buying tickets through 'Buy Now, Pay Later' platforms.
If you've been to the UAE, you know the Dubai chocolate bar. Shake Shack is turning it into a dessert - Cult-favourite chocolate bar makeover.
Signing off
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is slipping, under pressure from fresh trade war fears. Since President Trump's tariff announcement on the 2nd of April, the index has shed around 9%. Tech heavyweights like Meituan, JD.com, and Xiaomi led the pullback.
In local company news, Clicks saw headline earnings per share climb 13.2% as turnover pushed up 6.2% to R23.2 billion in the first half. Over at PSG, headline earnings jumped 23%, buoyed by strong equity markets. The group's total assets under management swelled to R471 billion by year-end.
US equity futures are in the green pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.74 to the greenback.
We are looking forward to earnings announcements today from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), UnitedHealth and Netflix.
Enjoy the long weekend. We will be back in your inbox on Tuesday.