Trumped

26 March , 08:15 am

Market scorecard

US markets closed slightly higher yesterday despite the release of some weak consumer sentiment data. It's to be expected that the US economy would cool after 18 months of strong consumer-driven growth. The S&P 500 gained 0.2% after a choppy trading session.

In company news, UPS shares dropped 5% after a Bank of America analyst cut earnings forecasts for the quarter, citing confusion over their role in implementing Trump tariffs. Elsewhere, Tesla somehow rose 3.4% despite the fact that their EU sales fell for a second straight month.

In summary, the JSE All-share was up 0.82%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq was 0.46% higher. That's decent.

Our 10c worth

One thing, from Paul

Here's some interesting market history that I picked up in a post by Adam Grossman on Humbledollar last week.

In 1774, a businessman in Amsterdam, Abraham van Ketwich, created the world's first index fund. After raising money from a group of individuals, he built a portfolio of diversified bonds. He deposited them in a metal box in his office, which three people then secured using three different locks. They left it shut for 25 years. The fund was called Eendragt Maakt Magt (unity makes strength).

The first modern index funds started in the US in the 1970s. Since then there's been a proliferation of them, more than 2 000 at last count, covering every corner of domestic and international markets. The biggest are the ones that track the S&P 500.

Byron's beats

I don't think there has been a time in my adult lifetime where politics has been such a hot topic. With podcasts, YouTube and social media, the conversations are everywhere and in your face. Politicians are streaming their meetings live and making decisions on the fly. This has never happened before.

I generally try to stay away from information rabbit holes, but I'm currently fully engaged by US politics, and enjoying the intellectual stimulation. So I am going to break all my own rules here and tell you what I think of the current Trump administration. I am naturally a centrist, so hopefully, I don't offend too many people.

I'm in full agreement with the internal political reset that Trump and his team are attempting. Cut the fat, kill the corruption, and fire the freeloaders. However, the Republicans aren't saints in all of this mess. They controlled the Senate for prolonged periods over the last 2 decades and of course Trump was already in power 4 years ago, where spending only increased.

I also support the mindset that promotes exceptionalism, entrepreneurial spirit, wealth and success. The red tape and overregulation, mostly imposed by the Democrats, is ridiculous. For example, it is nearly impossible to build affordable housing in California. Liberals imagine a world where everyone has equal opportunity, yet it is incredibly tough for poor people to live in California. That is ironic and sad.

I strongly disagree with Trump's foreign policy. He's alienating his biggest allies, trade partners and ideological supporters. Mexico, Canada and Europe should be embraced, not attacked. The upside of these nations working together far outweighs the downside. Globalisation, free trade and cooperation between countries is a great thing for humanity. There are many good institutions (not perfect) that have been established to promote those values and his administration is undermining them. Nato is the obvious example. America cannot succeed if the rest of the world fails.

Tariffs are a disaster. They go against all the good things mentioned above. Worst of all, they create inflation, which has so many negative knock-on effects. For example, inflation keeps interest rates high which means that the trillions of dollars the US government pays on its debt will increase. That is far more important than the cost cuts of DOGE.

Cancelling agencies like USAID is also a bad idea. If you want to be a global superpower, you need to exert your influence with money. If China, for example, fills those gaps, then the countries that sit in the middle (like SA) will sway to the East. That is how the world works.

There are pros and cons to what Trump and his (very smart IMO) team are doing. Great internal policies, terrible foreign ones. For the record, this does not change my bullish view on owning US stocks, if anything, it enhances it.

Michael's musings

I saw an Instagram video last week where a financial analyst compared the total amount of gold mined to the market caps of the Magnificent 7. Roughly speaking, the total value of gold ever mined is about $22 trillion and the total market cap of the Magnificent 7 is around $15 trillion.

The analyst then declared that this ratio is unsustainable. In his mind, the only real money is gold, so he thinks it's crazy that just a handful of companies are worth all the gold ever dragged out of the ground. He's comparing apples with goats. Humanity's wealth is how productive we are, not how much gold our ancestors mined.

Would you rather own a few gold bars, which cost money to store and doesn't grow, or stakes in seven companies that are central to how humanity operates, and have managers working hard to grow profits and pay dividends? One is a useful asset, and the other is a shiny rock.

Bright's banter

Fidelity Investments had a record-breaking year in 2024, with operating income jumping 21% to $10.3 billion and revenue rising 16% to $32.7 billion. The strong performance was driven by a market rally that boosted inflows. With $5.9 trillion in assets under management (AUM) and $15.1 trillion in assets under administration (AUA), including Vestact's, Fidelity remains a dominant player in global finance, period!

Much of Fidelity's AUM growth has been fuelled by passive investing. Its index fund arm, Geode Capital, manages a fleet of low-cost funds including the Fidelity 500 Index Fund, which now has $639 billion in assets, surpassing both Vanguard's and State Street's S&P 500 ETFs.

Despite being one of the most powerful investment firms in the world, Fidelity has kept a low profile due to its private ownership by the Johnson family. Abigail Johnson, who has led the firm for over a decade, has overseen a period of remarkable growth and transformation.

Linkfest, lap it up

It's easy but only if you practice. A healthy mind and body, saving and investing, balance of work and play, meaningful relationships - Things that need reps.

A 10-carat Fancy Vivid Blue diamond is going on auction. This thing is expected to fetch north of $20 million at Sotheby's in Geneva - Meet the Mediterranean Blue.

Signing off

Trading in Asian markets is muted this morning, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edging slightly higher after a three-day losing streak. Chinese tech stocks rebounded, with the Hang Seng Tech Index gaining as much as 1.6% after nearing correction territory.

The US military appears to be massing an unprecedented fleet of B-2 Spirit bombers In Diego Garcia, preparing for action in the Middle East. Let's see how that situation evolves.

In local company news, Pepkor is expanding its footprint in the adult wear market with the acquisition of Legit, Swagga, Style, and Boardmans from privately held Retailability. Elsewhere, Remgro posted a 38.7% rise in headline earnings for the half-year, driven by stronger performances from key investee companies, including Rainbow Chicken, RCL Foods, Outsurance, and Mediclinic.

US equity futures are lower in early pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.28 to the US Dollar.

Have a good day. Try to stay out of trouble.